Live Coverage: Nonfarm Payrolls may intensify downturn fears, boost Gold, hit stocks

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Nonfarm Payrolls data may show a weaker US labor market, raising rate cut expectations – but also exacerbating fears of a downturn. The all-important jobs report is set to rock Gold, stocks and all currencies.

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Why Nonfarm Payrolls may trigger a different reaction this time

The Federal Reserve conveyed a message that a "soft landing" is coming – a gradual return of the US economy to steady growth, without inflation. However, an increase in jobless claims and a downbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI already triggered fears of a downturn.

Investors need a "Goldilocks" Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to be confident of a the soft landing scenario. That means another increase of around 200,000 jobs, and no increase in the Unemployment Rate beyond 4.1% reported last time.

Gold would benefit from a weak report, which would indicate rate cuts, while the US Dollar needs extreme data to rise. A super-strong NFP would increase rate hike expectations, buoying the Greenback, while a horrible outcome would trigger safe-haven flows toward the US Dollar. Only a balanced increase in jobs would hurt the currency.

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Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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