Are President Trump's tariffs impacting America's labor market? That is a fierce debate that will be partially settled with April's Nonfarm Payrolls report. It will also shake Gold, Stocks and Currencies.
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Nonfarm Payrolls may show resilience but fail to remove doubts
While the US economy and its labor market are dynamic, companies take their time in adjusting to changes. President Donald Trump's tariffs are intended to boost local manufacturing, but they may hurt importers and retailers selling imported goods.
The big "Liberation Day" announcement came on April 2, but Trump delayed the implementation of some of the duties on April 9. He also exempted consumer electronics from the later week. That is the same week as Nonfarm Payrolls surveys are conducted, and it is probably too early to see the impact.
Nevertheless, ADP's private-sector employment report indicated an increase of only 62,000 positions, well below estimates. And while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came out negative, that is due to quirks, and under the hood, consumers remain resilient.
What is more certain? High volatility in the interpretation of the data. Stocks and also the US Dollar have been recovering and Gold is off its highs. The relative calm could be broken soon enough.
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