Marc Nemenoff
PRICE Futures Group
Financials: June Bonds are currently 11 higher at 146'21, 10 Yr. Notes 7.5 higher at 123'03 and 5 Yr. Notes 3.75 higher at 115'06. Earlier in the week yield on the 30 yr. Bond traded at 3.0%, up from recent lows of under 2.90%, before backing off to the current 2.975%. The 10 Yr. Note yield also rallied , finding resistance at 2.6%. The yield curve between the 2Yr. and 5 Yr. Notes has inverted with the 2 Yr. yielding 0.01% more than the 5 Yr. Pressure from the White House could keep rates steady to lower for the near future despite the Fed's independence. For the interim I will only look for trades at market extremes. I will be a buyer in Bonds below 144'15 and a seller above 149'15.
Grains: July Corn is currently 0'4 higher at 367'4, Beans 2'2 higher at 894'6 and Wheat 4'0 lower at 445'6. With only 5% of Crops planted I am going to suggest that farmers will be planting fencepost to fencepost, keeping me negative. I will be a seller on any significant rallies.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have rallied significantly in the 2 months that I have been recovering from recent surgery. Beef demand has been brisk and competing Hog prices have rallied due to diseased hogs, particularly in China. I feel these markets are overbought but not willing to risk very much. I am going long the June 116 put/short the 114put spread for 40 points ($160) or better. Currently at 27.5 points ($110).
Silver: May Silver is currently 3 cents higher at 14.97. I remain long.
S&P's: June S&P's are 3.25 higher at 2903.75, close to record highs in the 2922.00 area. Treat as a trading affair between 2883.00 and 2918.00. Today's release of the Muller Report will probably dominate the trade.
Currencies: AS of this writing the June Euro is 52lower at 1.13015, the Yen 13.5 higher at 0.89790, the Pound 29 lower at 1.3047 and the Dollar Index 35.2 higher at 97.010. I'm a seller in the Dollar Index above 97.00.
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