Jobs - Not Steve

S2N spotlight

I enjoyed watching this discussion by very eminent professors about the impact of AI on the future of work. One of the things that struck me was there was a substantial amount of humility from a panel not well known for their humility.

I don’t have any reputation, so I will be less humble and say it as I see it. Jobs are under threat and will continue to be lost in much greater numbers than the numbers I read in today’s papers.

Amazon 30,000, General Motors 3,300, Target 1,800, UPS 48,000. According to ADP employment numbers, they have contracted in three of the last four months; from June to October, there have been more than 200,000 jobs lost. This figure does not include the 100,000 jobs lost in government since 1 October.

Worth mentioning is October’s government shutdown will see:

• Roughly 670,000 federal employees furloughed (i.e., sent home without pay).
• About 730,000 federal employees are working (as “essential” personnel) but are doing so without pay.

That adds up to around 1.4 million workers missing full pay. That has got to hurt the economy. I didn’t write yesterday, as I just felt tired of being this repetitive wet blanket.

S2N observations

I got this idea off X. Who would have thought that the worst breadth day when the S&P 500 went up was on Tuesday? This means the net number of companies in the S&P 500 was down (-294) when the market was up. This is especially true when the market is at its highest point.

Another idea I got on X today, which I created. Looking back 50+ years, I have plotted every time there was a rate cut when the S&P 500 was at an all-time high.

S2N screener alert

$5 trillion reasons for Nvidia’s ATH. This chart shows amazing growth. Growth without pause is dangerous.

Not quite the same, but the Japan Nikkei is making new ATHs at an exponential rate. I am anticipating a pullback soon.

The Dow Jones Global Index continues to grow, making new ATHs.

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