Stocks suffered yesterday as the reopening trade took a hit. We could look to surging cases in India for a sense of alarm or unease, whilst tensions around the Ukraine and Russia are arguably adding a dullness to trade. But a technical pullback from aggressively overbought positioning seems to be more of a factor. I don’t think that the macro picture has altered much since Friday; US 10 year yields are subdued around 1.55-1.60%. Earnings are coming in better than expected or at least in line, and clearing a very high bar in the process. But investors seem content to park gains for the moment and reassess. It’s all about the E bit of the PE ratio now as we can no longer rely on optimistic margin expansion driven by the Fed – it’s all in already. True, travel stocks were badly affected – it looks more and more that international travel is several months behind where we thought it might have been at this stage. The fact that the US State Department plans to slap “do not travel” advisories on 80% countries underlined the way in which vaccines are only going to deliver a true return to normal once the world is inoculated. Earnings are by and large very strong but that’s already been discounted by a stock market that hit a record high last Friday. Similar story for the DAX. The FTSE has a longer path to travel hit its all-time highs again but this only offers hope for progress.
How markets respond over the coming weeks will depend a lot on the vaccine programme and the path of new cases, as well as signals from central banks. The ECB meeting tomorrow carries some degree of risk for markets, particularly if the GC or Lagarde offers any hints of hawkishness – it’s too easy to underestimate the strength of the hawks and the ECB’s willingness to exit pandemic emergency mode before the Fed. The euro will have a free pass to rise if markets think the ECB will exit PEPP before it runs its full course. Bank of Canada rate decision is due today and the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is speaking later this morning.
Fiscal stimulus remains a crucial support but this has largely been priced in – albeit not entirely, particularly in Europe. And this morning the German constitutional court dismissed a legal challenge to ratify the EU recovery fund. So a year on we may be about to see if the long awaited funds can be dispersed. Very little, very late. In comparison with the US it’s paltry. Nevertheless, if we are looking at stock market sectors and markets then the fact is that retail sales growth of almost 10% in the US shows that the US bazooka creates a lot of spillover for the global economy, including Europe.
On Wall Street, the Dow declined by 256 points, its worst day in a month, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%, respectively. The Vix closed above 18 after hitting a 14-month low last week. Not exactly elevated, but on the way up. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 2% to under 6,900, while the DAX dropped 1.55%. This morning we are seeing something of a bounce with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% in the first 30 minutes of the session, but there is a lot of ground to make up and gains so far look a little tentative. We continue to see the churn – IAG back up today after a drubbing yesterday, JustEat is down over 4%. PensionBee didn’t buzz on its first day with shares flat in early trade. At least it is doing better than Deliveroo, which is steady today at 244p, down from its IPO price 390p. Having tried to consolidate pensions in the past, I am sure anything that actually makes it easier is sure to be in demand. But the market is a little wary of new IPOs at this stage in the cycle.
Total football, total shambles: Shares in Juventus and Manchester Utd fell as the wheels came off the ESL quicker than you can shout ‘sack the owners’. It’s been a total debacle for the clubs – investors may be cautious about investing in football teams; they usually are. Whilst the ‘big’ six English clubs have pulled out, the Italian and Spanish teams are still committed on paper – I wonder how long they can eke this out. Juventus shares tumbled 10% in early trade on Wednesday, taking the stock back almost to where it was closed on Friday as traders saw blood. After dropping 6% yesterday and a further 2% after hours, Man Utd stock is also back to where it was before the weekend bombshell.
Netflix stumbled after hours, plunging 9% after missing on net subscriber adds and offering soft Q2 guidance. Netflix added 4m new customers in the first quarter, short of the 6m expected. Management guided just for just 1m net adds in Q2 and warned of ongoing uncertainty due to the pandemic. The company - and the Street - seem to have overestimated the continuity of demand from a record breaking 2020. Still it’s position looks strong even if sequential growth rate is slowing, which was always to be expected anyways. Revenues jumped 24% from the same quarter a year ago to $7.2m. Earnings were up by $1bn from last year to $1.7bn because of production delays lowering costs, but also the significant revenue jump.
On the data front, UK inflation came in at 0.7%, a little lighter than expected but notably up from 0.4% in February as base effects from the pandemic start to enter the data. Higher fuel and clothing costs were the chief drivers of the increase.
Sterling pulled back as the dollar made gains following Monday’s move lower. After touching 1.40 in early trade yesterday, GBPUSD trades pretty steady to start the session at 1.3920, testing the old resistance of the top of the Apr 6th outside daily candle. As explained earlier, Monday’s sharp move way beyond the top Bollinger called for a pullback, which we have seen. Momentum remains with the bulls just but could swing if it turns under 1.39. As long as this holds we ought to see a return to the 1.40 area and break out may be forthcoming. EURUSD trades lighter at 1.20250, whilst USDJPY dropped further under 108 to its lowest since early March.
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It is your responsibility to carefully read these Trading Policies and Procedures and to inform Safecap of any questions or objections that you may have regarding them before entering each and every Transaction. You agree, represent, warrant and certify that you understand and accept Safecap’s Trading Policies and Procedures, as set forth here and as may be amended from time to time by Safecap, in its sole discretion, and you agree to comply with Safecap’s Trading Policies and Procedures. Terms capitalized in these Trading Policies and Procedures are defined in the Glossary as found on Safecap website. 2. TRADING HOURS All references to Safecap’s hours of trading are in Greenwich Mean Time (“GMT”) using 24-hour format. Safecap normally provides access for trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts via the Website from 21:00 GMT on Sunday to 21:00 GMT on Friday. Please refer to our “Instruments Table” for additional information. 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Where you place Orders with us, the execution factors that we consider and their relative importance is as set out below: 1. Price. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 2. Speed. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 3. Likelihood of execution and settlement. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 4. Size. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 2. We are the principal to every Order you place with us and therefore we are the only execution venue. 4. ORDERS 1. Orders Placement. All Orders must be placed through the Safecap Online Trading System or by telephone to the Safecap Trading Desk. Telephone Orders are accepted in the sole discretion of Safecap. 2. Types of Orders Accepted. Some of the types of Orders Safecap accepts include, but are not limited to: 1. Good till Canceled (“GTC”) - An Order (other than a Market Order), that by its terms is effective until filled or canceled by Customer. GTC Orders do not automatically cancel at the end of the Business Day on which they are placed. 2. Limit - An Order (other than a Market Order) to buy or sell the identified market at a specified price. A Limit Order to buy generally will be executed when the Ask Price equals or falls below the Bid Price that you specify in the Limit Order. A Limit Order to sell generally will be executed when the Bid Price equals or exceeds the As Price that you specify in the Limit Order. 3. Market - An Order to buy or sell the identified market at the current market price that Safecap provides either via the Online Trading System or over the telephone through one of the dealers. An Order to buy is executed at the current market Ask Price and an Order to sell is executed at the current market Bid Price. 4. One Cancels the Other (“OCO”)- An Order that is linked to another Order. If one of the Orders is executed, the other will be automatically cancelled. 5. Stop Loss - A Stop Loss Order is an instruction to buy or sell a market at a price which is worse than the opening price of an open position (or worse than the prevailing price when applying the Stop Loss Order to an already open position). It can be used to help protect against losses. Please note that because of market gapping, the best available price that may be achieved could be materially different to the price set on the Stop Loss Order and as such, Stop Loss Orders are not guaranteed to take effect at the price for which they are set. 6. Trailing Stop - A Trailing Stop is the same as a Stop Loss Order with the only difference being that, instead of setting a price at which the Order is activated, the Trailing Stop Order is activated at a fixed distance from the market price. For example, if Customer has purchased a long open position and the market Ask Price increases, the Trailing Stop price will also increase and will trail behind the market Ask Price at the fixed distance set by Customer. If the market Ask Price then decreases, the Trailing Stop price will remain fixed at its last position and if the market Ask Price reaches the Trailing Stop price, the Order will be executed. Please note that because of market gapping, the best available price that may be achieved could be materially different to the price set on the Trailing Stop Order and as such, Trailing Stop Orders are not guaranteed to take effect at the fixed distance for which they are set. 3. One Click Order Entry/One Click Execution of Market Orders. 1. Electronic Order entry for Market Orders equals Order execution. To enter an online Order, Customer must access the Markets window, then click on “BUY/SELL” for the relevant market. A new window will appear in which the Customer enters the price and lot size. The Order is filled shortly after the Customer hits the OK button provided the Customer has sufficient funds in his Account. Orders may fail for several reasons including changing dealer prices, insufficient margin, unspecified lot size or unanticipated technical difficulties. 2. One-Click Trading. To use one-click trading, Customer must go to the “Settings” menu and choose “View and Edit”. Customer should check the “One-Click Trading” box. To enter an online Order with one-click trading, the Customer must access the Markets window and enter the price and lot size. The Order is filled shortly after the Customer clicks the BUY/SELL button provided the Customer has sufficient funds in his Account. Orders may fail for several reasons including changing dealer prices, insufficient margin, unspecified lot size or unanticipated technical difficulties. One-Click Trading can also be used when closing positions. 3. 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