Investors are watching closely: Will the Fed deliver a hawkish signal, or hint at dovish options?

Frank Walbaum

Important News for the day

Wed., 18th, 08:00 CET UK Consumer Price Index.
Wed, 18th, 14:30 CET US Unemployment Claims.
Wed, 18th, 20:00 CET US Federal Funds Rate.
Wed, 18th 20:30 CET US FOMC Press Conference.

TikTok US

The social media platform TikTok can still be used in the USA. For the third time, the US government has extended the use of the platform by a further 90 days. US President Trump will sign a decree in the next few days that will allow the Chinese company Bytedance to continue offering its services to US customers. It is alleged that the Chinese government has access to users' data and can therefore spy on American citizens. The US government continues to claim that the platform must be sold to a US company to prevent its use from being banned in the future.

Market talk

The strength of the Dollar seems to continue. Today’s FOMC interest rate decision might offer more momentum for the Greenback if rates are not being cut. The Dollar could gear up steam causing the GBP and AUD in particular to weaken. This might in turn also cause equities to push lower. The Nasdaq index might face negative momentum due to the potentially stronger USD. Furthermore, markets and hence valuations have been rising already quite substantially so far this after the recent correction earlier on. Worth noting that oil prices continue to push higher again and so does the
Silver market. The rising demand could hence also be a sign of fresh strength in the economy in general.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities sideways, USD stronger, Bitcoin sideways, ETH sideways, oil positive, Silver positive, Gold weaker, JPY weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD hits eight-month lows below 0.6850 amid bullish USD

AUD/USD stays defensive below 0.6850, hitting an eight-month low in the Asian session on Thursday as the possibility of a steeper Fed rate hike in December helps the US Dollar hold near its highest level since April 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty also supports the safe-haven buck, while the RBA’s cautious, on-hold stance limits the Aussie.

USD/JPY eases from near 160.00 amid looming intervention risks, BoJ hike bets

USD/JPY retreats slightly from an over two-month high as the recent surge back to the 160.00 psychological mark prompted verbal warnings from Japanese authorities and sparked fears of direct FX intervention. Moreover, data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation picked up again in October, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike in December and lifting the Japanese Yen. However, a bullish US Dollar, bolstered by odds of a jumbo Fed rate hike in December, could cap the pair's downside.

Gold remains a sell-on-rise trade amid steeper Fed hike bets

Gold fades its tepid recovery attempts at the $4,000 level early Thursday, as sellers refuse to budge amid rising expectations of a steeper interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at its December monetary policy meeting.

XRP consolidates losses, XLM extends recovery

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) show mild signs of recovery on Thursday, but bears continue to weigh on both cryptocurrencies. XRP trades near $1.055 while XLM holds modest gains around $0.148. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain activity caps both altcoins’ recovery prospects, despite improving price action. CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a bearish outlook for both altcoins.

UK GDP is set to show that the economy continued growing in Q3

The highlight of the United Kingdom’s economic calendar this week will be the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which the Office for National Statistics will release on Thursday. The market is bracing for 0.7% growth in the three months to September, following 0.5% growth in the second quarter of 2026, with the annual rate accelerating to 1.9%, from 1.4% in the previous month.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.