International trade: Easing of tensions on global sea freight
In addition, the latest developments in the global manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity has stabilised: the indicator rose by 0.3 points to 50.3 and the new orders subindex also returned to expansion territory at 50.4, compared to 49.8 in the previous month. Nevertheless, the situation remains fragile and the first PMI indicators available for March show contrasting dynamics between regions (improvement in the United States and China, deterioration in the euro area). New export orders from Taiwan, on the other hand, remain on a downward trajectory, falling 10% year-on-year in February.
Global exports in volume terms rebounded by 1.8% m/m in January, according to the CPB report. However, exports have been plateauing for almost two years and remained below the peak reached in March 2023 in January 2024. January's increase was mainly driven by China, which posted export growth of 7.4% m/m – the strongest increase in nine months – and to a lesser extent emerging Asia (+3.7% m/m), the euro area (+1.4% m/m) and Latin America (+1.3% m/m). However, exports from the United States and Japan declined by 0.7% m/m and 4.7% m/m, respectively.
Indicators of international trade
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BNP Paribas Team
BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.
