How to trade the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with EUR/USD

The forward-looking gauge for the services sector is a top-tier figure that moves markets.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
The EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 35 pips in the following 4 hours

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.69 deviation (57.13 ) [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.1695

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.713 or less(56.1892 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 29 pips in the first 15 minutes and 103 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1630 held the pair down in early September. The line also had a role beforehand. 1.1695 was a peak in late August. 1.1735 was a swing high in mid-August and it is followed by the quadruple top of 1.1750 from July.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.90 deviation (57.57 ) [SELL Pair]
Key Support Level: 1.1530

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.90 or higher(57.57 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 22 pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1585 was a pivotal line in the range. 1.1530 is a double-bottom from late August and early September and is the most significant support level. 1.1495 was a swing low in mid-August.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

EUR USD Technical analysis September 6 2018

More data

The broad ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey asks influential managers' to rank the state of their business looking forward. The services sector is America's largest. A better sentiment implies more hiring. A small rise is expected after the disappointment last month.

More: ADP NFP + ISM Non-Manufacturing Preview: Data are indicative not only for the NFP

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 35 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -3.38 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 13 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 51 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

EUR/USD meets initial support around 1.1800

EUR/USD remains on the back foot, although it has managed to reverse the initial strong pullback toward the 1.1800 region and regain some balance, hovering around the 1.1850 zone as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. Moving forward, market participants will now shift their attention to the release of the FOMC Minutes and US hard data on Wednesday.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, retargets 1.3550

After bottoming out just below the 1.3500 yardstick, GBP/USD now gathers some fresh bids and advances to the 1.3530-1.3540 band in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Cable’s recovery comes as the Greenback surrenders part of its advance, although it keeps the bullish bias well in place for the day.

Gold hangs near one-week low; looks to FOMC Minutes for fresh impetus

Gold is consolidating just above the $4,850 level, having touched a one-week low on Tuesday, amid mixed cues. Signs of progress in US–Iran talks dent demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, rising bets for more Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the FOMC Minutes, which would offer cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and provide some meaningful impetus.

DeFi could lift crypto market from current bear phase: Bitwise

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan hinted that the decentralized finance sector could lead the crypto market out of the current bear phase, citing Aave Labs’ latest community proposal as a potential signal of good things to come.

UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes

In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.

Ripple slides to $1.45 as downside risks surge

Ripple edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.