- The US GDP report provides a full view of the US economy and is set to impact the USD/JPY.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The USD/JPY moved, on average, 21 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.
Buying USD/JPY Scenario
- Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.27 deviation (2.56%) [BUY Pair]
- Key Resistance Level: 109.50
If it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of +1.27 or higher (2.56% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 73 pips in the following 4 hours.
108.90 was a swing low in late May and is the first level to watch. Stronger resistance is at 109.50 which was a stepping stone on the way up. The round number of 110.00 is next.
Selling USD/JPY Scenario
- Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.53 deviation (2.28%) [SELL Pair]
- Fundamental Support Level: 108.10
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -2.14 or less (1.86% or lower in actual terms), the USD/JPY may go down reaching a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 59 pips in the following 4 hours.
108.10 was a swing low in late May. Close by, 107.90 capped the pair on its way up. Further down, support awaits at the round number of 107.00.
USD/JPY Levels on the Chart
-636632638334916420.png)
More data
The US first-quarter GDP is expected to be revised upward to 2.4% over the quarter annualized after 2.3% preliminary estimate.
The combination of strong GDP growth, solid US labor market, and core PCE price index firmly above 2% is seen keeping the Federal Reserve firmly anchored on its path of gradual interest rate normalization with June rate hike being a sure shot.
See: US GDP revision Preview: First quarter growth seen slightly higher than originally estimated
In the last five releases, the USD/JPY moved, on average, 21 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.
The previous release had a positive surprise of +1.46 in terms of relative deviation and the USD/JPY reached a 41 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 48 pips 4 hours thereafter.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.0700, awaits key US data
EUR/USD clings to gains near the 1.0700 level in early Europe on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
Meta takes a guidance slide amidst the battle between yields and earnings
Meta's disappointing outlook cast doubt on whether the market's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Investors now brace for significant macroeconomic challenges ahead, particularly with the release of first-quarter GDP data.