How to trade the US Consumer Sentiment with EUR/USD

  • The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is an indicator of spending, has the last word of the week and a significant impact on markets.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
  • In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 11 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 38 pips in the following 4 hours.

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.74 deviation (97.48) [BUY Pair]

  • Key Resistance Level: 1.1650

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.74 or less (97.48 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 18 pips in the first 15 minutes and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1650 was the May 25th low and a confluence of potent technical levels. Further up, 1.1725 worked as support before the pair tumbled down on June 14th. The high point of 1.1850 was a swing high on June 14th and also capped the pair earlier in the month.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.67 deviation (99.99) [SELL Pair]

    Key Support Level: 1.1510

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.67 or higher (99.99 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 20  pips in the first 15 minutes and 66 pips in the following 4 hours. 

Some support awaits at the morning lows of 1.1545 but stronger support awaits at 1.1510 which is the 2018 low and the lowest point since July 2017. Further down, 1.1480 is notable for serving as an important line back then.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 11 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 38 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.45 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 9 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 46 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

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