- The change in UK Earnings is closely watched by markets and may have a significant impact on the GBP/USD.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
Buying GBP/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Positive Trigger: +0,52 deviation [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: $1.4390
If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +0,52 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 39 pips in the first 15 minutes and 87 pips in the following 4 hours.
The pair is tackling the highest levels since the EU Referendum back in June 2016 at $1.4345. Higher above, 1.4390 was a pre-Referendum gap line from June 17th, 2016. The post-gap level of $1.4435 is the next level to watch before the round level of $1.4500.
Selling GBP/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Negative Trigger: -0,48 deviation [SELL Pair]
-
Key Support Level: $1.4245.
If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -0,48 or less, the GBP/USD may up reaching a range of 44 pips in the first 15 minutes and 85 pips in the following 4 hours
A fall from the $1.4345 battle line would send the pair back to the late-March high of $1.4245. The next level to watch is $1.4150 which was a swing high in February. Another February high at $1.4070 is the next level to watch.
GBP/USD Levels on the Chart
-636595418132334409.png)
More data
In the last five releases, the GBP/USD moved, on average, 32 pips in the 15 minutes after the announcement and 71 pips in the 4 hours after the release.
The previous release had a negative surprise of 4.08 concerning deviation and the GBP/USD reached a 55 pip range in the first 16 minutes after the release and achieving a range of 65 pips in the next 4 hours.
With the British economy enjoying full-employment or near full-employment conditions, the focus in the past year or so has been on wages. Higher salaries imply a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of England. Earnings have been on the rise of late, raising the odds of a rate hike.
UK wage growth Preview: Wages set to turn positive in real turn after more than a year
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD could extend the recovery to 0.6500 and above
The enhanced risk appetite and the weakening of the Greenback enabled AUD/USD to build on the promising start to the week and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure ahead of key inflation figures in Australia.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
Gold struggles around $2,325 despite broad US Dollar’s weakness
Gold reversed its direction and rose to the $2,320 area, erasing a large portion of its daily losses in the process. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.6% following the weak US PMI data and supports XAU/USD.
Bitcoin price makes run for previous cycle highs as Morgan Stanley pushes BTC ETF exposure
Bitcoin (BTC) price strength continues to grow, three days after the fourth halving. Optimism continues to abound in the market as Bitcoiners envision a reclamation of previous cycle highs.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Federal Reserve might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.