How to trade the Final US GDP with EUR/USD

The Final US GDP report for Q4 2017 is a significant market mover ahead as the quarter draws to a close.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0,37deviation [SELL Pair]
Key Support Level: 1.2360

If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +0,37 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 41 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours

Support levels are to be found approximately at 1.2330 and 1.2260 accordingly to the Confluence Indicator.

Vestiges of demand can be seen around 1.2320 and below at 1.2280, based on aggregated trading positions from FXStreet's dedicated contributors

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0,51 deviation [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.2420

If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -0,51 or less, the EUR/USD may up reaching a range of 36 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours

On the upside, there are clusters of resistance at 1.2420 and 1.2445.

From a positioning perspective, supply is noted at 1.2450 and above.1.2555.

Only 20% of EUR-based pairs are in bullish mode against a basket of 20 world currencies accordingly to the EUR-Bullish Percentage Index. As such, a release which surprises the market with a negative trigger (USD negative) may lead to a stronger up move in the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 19 pips in the 15 minutes after the release and 51 pips in the 4 hours after the announcement. The previous release had no surprise in terms of deviation.

The US releases its Gross Domestic Product estimates three times, and revisions are quite frequent. Higher growth levels imply a faster pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve, while slower growth may slow Fed Chair Powell and his team with the speed of rate hikes.

In the second release for the last quarter of 2017, the annualized growth rate stood at 2.5%. An upgrade to 2.7% is on the cards. These levels are slower than Q2 and Q3 2017 when the US economy grew at a clip of over 3%. However, it is faster than the pace projected for the first quarter of 2018.

More: US Final GDP and PCE, and the EUR/USD Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying

The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.