How to trade Canada's GDP with USD/CAD

Selling USD/CAD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.07 deviation (0.12 ) [SELL Pair]

• Key Support Level: 1.3165

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.07 or higher(0.12 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 43  pips in the first 15 minutes and 77 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.3240 was a swing low on June 28th. 1.3165 provided support to the pair on its way up on June 18th. It is followed closely by 1.3125 which was the peak in March. Further down, 1.3055 capped the pair in mid-June. 

Buying USD/CAD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.08 deviation (0.13 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.3350

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.08 or less(-0.13 or lower in actual terms), the USDCAD may go up reaching a range of 47 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3350 capped the pair on June 28th. It is followed by 1.3385 which was the swing high on that day. Further above, 1.3420 is an old line.

USD/CAD Levels on the Chart

More data

Canada's quarterly GDP rate for the first quarter of 2018 is expected to show modest growth as the winter hit the economy hard. Nevertheless, thick hints by the BOC about strong growth raise expectations. 

See: Canadian GDP Forecast: Hopes are higher than they seem - can Canada deliver?

In the last five releases, the USD/CAD moved, on average, 46 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 90 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.82 in terms of relative deviation and the USD/CAD reached a 25 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 55 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.