How Britain will dodge tariffs the Trump way: Buy the gas, fly the Jets, play the game

Let’s not kid ourselves—if Britain wants to stay out of the Trump tariff crosshairs, it's going to have to play the game. And in Trump’s world, that game is transactional: you want access, you buy something. Preferably American. Ideally energy. LNG, to be exact.

Markets are buzzing ahead of Trump’s 10 A.M. Oval Office announcement, with bets flying that the mystery “major trade deal” could involve the UK. Normally, a US-UK trade pact wouldn’t move global markets, but this one might—because of what’s on the table and what it implies. If Washington walks back the 10% baseline tariff, that’s not just a deal—it’s a green light for risk. Dollar bulls and equity longs would feast.

The UK, keen to avoid getting caught in the crossfire of a broader EU-focused tariff regime, has been gaming out its options. One of the clearest paths to Trump’s good graces? Energy imports. Downing Street knows it needs a new anchor with North Sea production declining and nuclear slow to scale. That anchor, increasingly, looks like U.S. LNG.

It’s already happening. U.S. LNG now accounts for 26% of UK energy imports—and that share is only going one direction. Buying more gas from America checks all the Trump-era boxes: it reduces trade imbalances, supports U.S. industry, and aligns with the broader "drill, baby, drill" posture coming out of Washington. The fact that it's less palatable for green advocates and domestic producers in the UK? Collateral.

But LNG isn’t the only bargaining chip. Jet diplomacy is also taking flight. Britain’s F-35 orders are rolling out, with fresh U.S. defence buys floated as part of a broader tariff-offset strategy. London needs to fill out its defence review; Washington wants to sell planes. Easy math.

Trump’s team isn’t looking for ideological alignment. They’re looking for purchase orders. Energy, defense, tech—pick your sector. The formula is clear: Buy American. Show intent. Avoid tariffs. It’s already playing out across ASEAN, and now Westminster’s taking notes.

This isn’t about ideology or legacy. This is Art of the Deal macro-politics: leverage access, extract concessions, reward compliance. Trump’s back, the tariffs are real, and if the UK wants to stay in the clear, it’s going to need to get transactional. Fast.