Hot Spanish CPI reading keeps the heat on ECB to hike by 50bps

Notes/Observations

- Big week on the central bank front as focus turned to major Central Bank decisions this week from FOMC, ECB and BoE (all expected to hike, 25bps, 50bps, 50bps respectively).

-Unexpectedly sticky Spain Jan Flash CPI spooked markets with 1st acceleration of annual pace in 6 months (5.8% v 5.0%e), ahead of major central bank rate decisions this week as fears of potentially higher terminal rates resurface. EUR was lifted, equities dropped, and EU bond yields spiked. Speculative assets received the biggest hit.

- Germany Q4 GDP contracts opening the door for a possible technical recession.

- Asia closed mixed with Hang Seng under-performing at -2.7%. EU indices are broadly lower -0.1% to -0.9%. US futures are -0.6% to -1.2%. Gold -0.2%, DXY -0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.3%, WTI -0.4%, TTF +1.1%; Crypto: BTC -1.0%, ETH -1.2%.

Asia

- BOJ Gov Kuroda stated that that its biggest responsibility was price stability. Reiterated stance that was possible to achieve the 2% inflation with wage growth and current easy policy.

- Japan Productivity Center Panel noted that Government and BOJ should make new joint statement. BOJ price target should be long-term goal. Proposed that interest rates rise more in line with economic fundamentals and that bond market functions should normalize.

- S&P affirmed Australia AAA sovereign rating, Outlook Stable.

Taiwan

- US General Minihan head of Air Mobility Command) believed that the US would be at war with China in 2 years over Taiwan.

- US McCaul (R-TX) said the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan are very high.

Ukraine conflict

- Ukraine advisor and negotiator Podolyak stated that Ukraine and its Western allies were engaged in "fast-track" talks on the possibility of equipping us with long-range missiles and military jets.

- German Chancellor Scholz ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine and warned against getting into a bidding war over weapons systems.

- Russia President Putin said to be open to contacts with German Chancellor Scholz.

Europe

- Jan Lloyds Business Barometer: 22 v 17 prior (6-month high).

- UK PM Sunak fired Conservative Party chair Zahawi after investigation into Zahawi's tax affairs found a serious breach of the ministerial code.

- Fitch raised Greece sovereign rating one notch to BB+ from BB; Outlook Stable.

Americas

- House Speaker McCarthy stated that Republicans would not allow the US to default on its debt; US President Biden to host McCarthy at the White House on Wed, Feb 1st.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.46% at 453.08, FTSE -0.11% at 7,756.78, DAX -0.55% at 15,067.35, CAC-40 -0.47% at 7,063.79, IBEX-35 -0.19% at 9,042.54, FTSE MIB -0.25% at 26,369.00, SMI -0.12% at 11,318.90, S&P 500 Futures -0.85%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open lower across the board and fell further as the session wore on; among the sectors hanging on to the green include utilities and financials; sectors leading to the downside include technology and real estate; Renault to cut mutual stake with Nissan; reportedly CDP could make offer for Telecom Italia’s landline network; Rexel announces a series of transactions in North America; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Franklin Resources and Whirlpool.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Ryanair [RYA.IE] -1.0% (reports Q3 - provides outlook on traffic numbers and capex).

- Consumer staples: Unilever [UNA.NL] -0.5% (appoints new CEO, effective July 1st).

- Energy: Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.0% (merges units), Panoro Energy [PEN.NO] -0.5% (FY22 trading update: rev misses estimates).

- Financials: Raiffeisen Bank [RBI.AT] -5.0% (Ukraine sanctions), 888 Holdings [888.UK] -21.0% (CEO steps down; suspends VIP service for investigation).

- Healthcare: Koninklijke Philips [PHIA.NL] +5.5% (reports Q4 - topline beat).

- Industrials: Renault [RNO.FR] -3.0% (confirms to reduce mutual stake with Nissan to 15%), BMW [BMW.DE] -1.0% (analyst action - cut to hold at Berenberg).

- Technology: Darktrace [DARK.UK] -6.0% (short position).

- Telecom: Telecom Italia [TIT.IT] +4.5% (divestment speculation), Cellnex Telecom [CLNX.ES] +1.5% (merger speculation).

Speakers

- BOJ Gov Kuroda testimony in Parliament reiterated stance that Dec's policy tweak in YCC was targeted to improving sustainability of Yield Control and not not a result of seeing goal approaching. Needed more time to analyze the impact of the Dec adjustment.

Currencies/fixed income

- Big week on the central bank front as focus turned to major Central Bank decisions this week from FOMC, ECB and BoE (all expected to hike).

- Spain Jan CPI data registered its 1st acceleration of annual pace in 6 months (5.8% v 5.0%e). EUR/USD was higher and re-approaching the 1.09 level as recent Spanish inflation data reinforced expectations the ECB would raise policy rates by 50 basis points at each of the next couple of policy meetings. The contraction of Germany’s Q4 data did little to deflect the upcoming ECB rate decisions as price stability is their mandate.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Jan Producer Confidence: 3.6 v 3.3 prior.

- (FI) Finland Jan Consumer Confidence: -12.7 v -18.5 prior; Business Confidence: -4e v -8 prior.

- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -6.1%e v -3.0% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Jan Economic Confidence: 99.3 v 98.1 prior.

- (SE) Sweden Q4 GDP Indicator Q/Q: -0.6% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v +1.3%e.

- (SE) Sweden Dec GDP Indicator M/M: -0.5 % v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.6% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Nov Non-Manual Workers’ Wages Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.3% prior.

- (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.4% prior.

- (ES) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.0% prior.

- (ES) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 4.8%e.

- (ES) Spain Dec Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: +4.0% v -0.5% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y (unadj): +3.5% v -0.7% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Jan KOF Leading Indicator: 97.2 v 93.4e.

- (AT) Austria Dec PPI M/M: -0.3% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: 13.3% v 15.4% prior.

- (DE) Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y:0.5 % v 0.8%e.

- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 528.0B v 531.6B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 511.6B v 511.6B prior.

- (IS) Iceland Jan CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.9% v 9.6% prior.

- (PO) Poland Overall 2022 GDP Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.7%e.

- (PT) Portugal Jan Consumer Confidence Index: -37.0 v -38.1 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 1.4 v 1.2 prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Economic Confidence: 99.9 v 97.0e; Industrial Confidence: +1.3 v -0.9%e; Services Confidence: 10.7 v 8.5e; Consumer Confidence (final): -20.9 v -20.9 advance.

- (BE) Belgium Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.9% prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: 3.8% v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: 39.2% v 35.7% prior.

- (GR) Greece Dec PPI Y/Y: 16.5% v 26.2% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (RO) Romania opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 2026 and 2029 bonds via syndication.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK240M in 3-month and 6-month Bills.

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 3.02% v 3.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.14x v 2.28x prior.

Looking ahead

- (MX) Mexico Dec YTD Budget Balance (MXN): -611.1Be v -611.2B prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.4% prior.

- 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell combined €5.0B in 6-month and 12-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (EU) European Union to sell combined €4.0B in 5-year and 10-year NGEU bonds.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.9% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior.

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 5.5% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS1.25B in 2025, 2026, 2028, 2031 and 2051 bonds.

- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills.

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.9%e v 7.9% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -62.1Be v -70.4B prior; Primary Budget Balance: -12.4Be v -20.1B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 57.2%e v 57.0% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.2-6.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 09:45 (UK) BOE Gilt sale operation.

- 10:30 (US) Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -15.5e v -18.8 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -6.1%e v -3.7% prior.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Cyclical Leading Index: No est v -0.2% prior.

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec Jobless Rate: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.36xe v 1.35 prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -3.9%e v -0.9% prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Retail Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 2.6% prior; Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.2%e v +1.4% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Private Sector Credit M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.9% prior.

- 20:30 (CN) China Jan Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official): 50.0e v 47.0 prior; Non-manufacturing PMI: 52.0e v 41.6 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 42.6 prior.

- 20:30 (CN) China Dec Industrial Profits Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior; YTD Y/Y: No est v -3.6% prior.

- 21:00 (SG) Singapore Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v -8.8% prior.

- 21:30 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW700B in 20-Year Bonds.

- 22:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB60B in 3-month Bills.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 2-Year JGB Bonds.

- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Dec ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: No est v -5.6% prior; Capacity Utilization ISIC: No est v 62.6% prior.