Highest minimum wages in Slovenia and Poland

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Industrial output declined in Romania by -3.2% y/y in February.
Inflation rate in Slovakia in March reached 4% y/y.
At 10 and 11 AM CET, Poland and Croatia will publish final inflation numbers in March.
There are no other releases scheduled.

Economic developments

Last week, Eurostat released data on gross minimum wages across the European Union as of January 2025. Luxembourg reports the highest minimum wage at €2638, while the minimum wages in the CEE region are less than half of this amount. Slovenia leads with a minimum wage of €1278, followed by Poland at €1091. All other countries in the region have minimum wages set below €1000. Croatia is close to this threshold at €970, whereas Czechia (€826), Slovakia (€816), and Romania (€814) have similar minimum wage levels despite differing median salaries. An interesting perspective emerges when adjusting minimum wages by the purchasing power standard (PPS). Considering price levels, Poland has the highest adjusted minimum wage at PPS 1523, followed by Slovenia at PPS 1427 and Romania at PPS 1340. Conversely, the lowest paid employees in Slovakia and Czechia earn PPS 973 and PPS 935, respectively. However, the comparison of gross minimum wages may be misleading due to local differences in social contributions, personal income tax, and tax allowances.

Market developments

While the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty are slightly stronger this week against the euro while the Hungarian forint keeps weakening. EURHUF is marginally above 410. The long-term yields have declined at the beginning of the week and ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled for April 17. The drama regarding tariffs continues as according to the latest news Trump considers further exemptions (after electronics) from tariffs this time on imported cars and parts. That would be important change for the CEE region and Slovakia in particular. Poland’s central banker Janczyk admitted that the chances for monetary easing at the upcoming meeting are very high. However, he sees the interest rate at 3.5% in 2026 as difficult to achieve. Slovak President Pellegrini said he would support scrapping transaction tax that was passed as part of consolidation package in order to lower budget deficit in 2025 and years ahead.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

EUR/USD plummets to 1.1840 on US NFP

EUR/USD’s selling momentum now picks up pace and rapidly hits the 1.1840 region on Wednesday. Indeed, the pair’s decline comes amid rising buying pressure on the US Dollar in the wake of firmer-than-expected results from US NFP in January.

GBP/USD approaches 1.3600 on USD-buying

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and trades closer to the 1.3600 support on Wednesday. That said, Cable’s extra downside traction comes against the backdrop of renewed strength in the Greenback as investors assess the latest US NFP data.

Gold trims gains post-NFP, targets $5,000

Gold rapidly reverses initial gains and retreats to the vicinity of the $5,000 region per troy ounce amid further gains in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields, all following the latest US NFP readings.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.