Hawks fly in as Fed's Waller puts 50bps hike on table and ECB's Lane backs hike

EU mid-market update: Hawks fly in as Fed's Waller puts 50bps hike on table and ECB's Lane backs hike; US gasoline back below $4 as we wait for US inflation this morning; Anthropic targeted ~$70B IPO at $70-80/shr but then said the pricing details were inaccurate.

The brief

- Fed Gov Waller said a 50bp December hike should be considered if today’s core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, with the ECB, BoE and BoJ also leaning toward December hikes. Nvidia fell 4.3% on export-control fears even as the S&P 500 jumped 2.35%. AI funding is under scrutiny: Anthropic may start marketing a record IPO after calling the price range it first sent out inaccurate, and SoftBank booked a $3.73B data-centre charge. In Europe, Vodafone, Henkel and Infineon beat or raised guidance, while Jungheinrich cut its targets. Falling oil (Brent below $90/bbl) will ease inflation from November, but not in time for today’s print.

Observations in full

- Waller made today’s CPI a decision between 25bps and 50bps, and argued that the AI buildout is itself a reason to tighten. He said a 50bps December hike “should be considered” if October core CPI comes in “around 0.3% or higher again”, because a 25bps move could put the Fed’s credibility at risk. Before he spoke, futures priced 0% odds of a 50bps move. He would back 25bps even if CPI improves, and said hikes previously signalled for January or March may need to come forward if inflation shows no progress. He has raised his estimate of the neutral rate, citing AI-driven productivity, fiscal policy and the AI buildout itself, so policy is “not nearly as restrictive” as previously thought. He argued that failing to deliver the hikes markets expect would loosen conditions “in an undesirable way”, which is why the last hold did not mean a retreat. By saying data centres “are going to get built” and that a broad AI-driven slowdown is unlikely, Waller makes the buildout the case for higher rates. He also said the Fed will not respond to stock swings unless they persistently change household wealth and spending, an answer to last week’s 4.4% fall in the S&P 500. On activity, he expects Q4 growth to moderate from Q3’s 3.4% as consumption stops being lifted by the stock market, while high-tech equipment investment keeps surging. He described the labour market as “low-hire, low-fire”, with six- and twelve-month payroll gains averaging about 80K, slightly above the pace needed to keep unemployment stable. Fed research finds energy price shocks now pass through to core goods and services more persistently, which could keep inflation elevated into 2027 if oil stays high. Disruption around Hormuz is reportedly adding as much as $20-30 a barrel through insurance and ship-to-ship transfers, so a deal that removes that premium is the largest disinflationary offset available. Consensus is 0.3% m/m headline and 0.2% core, and the BLS will not publish y/y rates because last October’s release was skipped during the shutdown. December hike odds rose to 84.2% on Monday, and the 2-year rose 5bps to 4.56%, flattening 2s10s to 32bps. Lane called a December ECB hike “prudent as things stand”, with inflation “just over 4%” by end-2026. With RBNZ and BoJ hikes also signalled, the Fed (Dec 8-9), ECB (Dec 16-17), BoE (Dec 17) and BoJ (Dec 17-18) now meet within ten days with hikes possible at all four. Friday’s PPI is forecast at 6.6% y/y.

- Nvidia fell 4.3% on a day the market rallied 2.35%, and the policy risk is now coming from the White House too. Nvidia closed at $178.67, about $192B below its Nov 6 value. AMD rose 13.3% to $508.58 on an Oppenheimer upgrade to outperform with a $600 target, and Broadcom rose 8.8%. The S&P 500 had its best day since April 8, the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.5% and the Russell 2000 3.2%. Late on Monday, The Information reported the White House is considering new export controls on Nvidia’s advanced chips. Taiwan press says stricter export inspections have left H200 processors piling up in Hong Kong, raising the risk that Nvidia cuts wafer orders at its foundry. The China channel that the H200 licence opened is now backed up, while Washington reviews whether the CEO’s ties compromised it. TSMC’s October revenue of NT$586.9B was up about 60% y/y and 15% m/m, so foundry demand outside that channel is still accelerating. Huang’s response to the House chairs is due Nov 11, earnings follow on Nov 17 and the requested briefing on Nov 18, the first day of APEC in Shenzhen. In a separate sign of thaw, WuXi AppTec was removed from the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military companies.

- Anthropic could start meeting investors as soon as today, and is preparing a livestreamed event where CEO Dario Amodei will discuss the IPO with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, according to a person familiar with the matter. That would put the head of a lead bank in front of retail investors for what would be the largest listing on record. A company representative first sent out a copy of a securities filing showing about 867M Class A shares at $70-80, which is $60.7-69.3B of primary proceeds, more than twice Aramco’s $29.4B record even at the bottom of the range. The representative then followed up by email saying the pricing details were inaccurate. The first investor meetings may happen before a corrected range is public, and the corrected range will be read as a measure of demand after the selloff. It comes in a week when Nvidia has lost about $192B of market value, Microsoft has begun pruning its rented AI capacity and SoftBank has booked a $3.73B charge tied to data-centre procurement. The deal also competes for the same long-only and credit money that has absorbed Meta’s 38-year euro bonds, Oracle’s $20B of equity and debt, and the hyperscalers’ record issuance. The numbers investors will test are in the revised S-1: $895.4B of infrastructure commitments, about 13x the top-of-range raise, and Q3 revenue of $16.96B with slowing sequential growth. Q3 revenue annualises to about $68B, against reported end-October ARR above $80B, so the October run-rate is the figure that supports the valuation. WSJ reports put the target near $1.5T. The marketing starts alongside today’s CPI and CoreWeave results, and pricing would come in the same window as Nvidia’s Nov 17 earnings and Huang’s requested Nov 18 briefing.

- SoftBank denied defaulting on turbine orders while booking a $3.73B charge tied to US data-centre procurement. An executive called Musk’s claim “simply not correct at all” and said its AI infrastructure plans remain on track, calling the technology “irreversible”. SoftBank’s H1 net result swung to a ¥768B loss from a ¥2.92T profit, after a $3.73B charge related to data-centre procurement in the US. It valued its OpenAI stake at $99.6B, with a $45.0B investment gain, on OpenAI’s round at a $1.25T pre-money valuation. The charge is the first time a Stargate sponsor’s procurement problems have shown up in reported numbers. Powered sites are gaining value. MARA said demand for its sites has risen sharply since the election, giving it pricing power, with interest spreading to peripheral locations and parts of its international portfolio. CoreWeave reports after today’s close. It is the first neocloud to report since Microsoft began consolidating those relationships, so watch utilisation, lease pricing and customer concentration.

- Brent fell 5.85% to $92.57 as Trump played down new Iran strikes, and US gasoline dropped below $4 for the first time since July. WTI settled at $86.85. Trump said further attacks were unlikely as long as talks continue, though shipping attacks around Hormuz are still being reported, and Seoul’s cabinet extended the Cheonghae naval unit’s mission. Honda said North American demand for compact and hybrid cars rose with petrol prices, a mix effect that will fade as prices fall. ADNOC Gas expects to restore full capacity by Q2 2027. Lower petrol prices will help headline CPI from November, but they arrive after Waller’s threshold for this print. Ukraine’s grid is the other energy risk. Ferrexpo suspended production after strikes left its power supply unstable, as US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks open in Abu Dhabi today.

- Asia: Korea triggered an upside sidecar, and foreign buyers piled into Japan. Kospi 200 futures jumped 5%, triggering a sidecar four days after one on the way down. Foreigners bought a net ¥7.86T of Japanese equities in October. Japan’s 30-year JGB sale averaged 3.847%, against 4.109% at the previous auction, though the bid-to-cover fell to 3.36x. Japanese September household spending fell 6.8% y/y against -3.0% expected, so the BoJ’s planned hike would come as consumer spending contracts. Finance Minister Katayama estimates the BoJ will earn ¥1.00T from faster ETF sales. China’s October trade surplus of $105.3B missed the $125.9B expected. Singapore’s overnight rate rose 11.69bps to 1.7446%, its highest since July 2025. Australia will create a mandatory AI safety regulator. Korea’s President Lee said Seoul must work more with the US Congress and state governments, after the midterms moved data-centre policy to the states.

- European earnings and the fiscal calendar. Vodafone’s H1 adjusted EBITDAaL rose to €6.5B from €5.7B, and it raised the midpoint of its FY27 outlook. Henkel raised its organic growth guidance to 3-4% from 1.5-3.5% after a strong October. Infineon’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose to €0.60 from €0.34 on in-line revenue of €4.71B. Jungheinrich cut its FY30 targets, citing persistent European weakness and restrained investment. UK grocery inflation rose to 2.6%, its third straight increase. Norway’s CPI eased to 3.6% and Hungary’s to 2.0%, back within target. France’s Senate continues the social security bill, with the Nov 26 ordinance deadline approaching. The WSJ reports that Trump’s drug pricing policy has coincided with a 27% drop in new drug launches in the EU over 17 months.

- Cross-asset: Waller’s 50bps condition makes today’s core CPI print a decision between 25bps and 50bps, while Lane, Conway and the BoJ point to hikes at four central banks within ten days in December. Nvidia’s 4.3% fall on a day the S&P 500 rose 2.35% isolates the governance and export-policy discount, with AMD and Broadcom taking the AI bid and TSMC’s October revenue up about 60%. Anthropic’s potential record $69.3B raise at $70-80 a share, with figures still being corrected, and SoftBank’s $3.73B procurement charge test AI funding. Brent at $92.57 and US gasoline below $4 will help headline inflation from next month. Still to come today: CPI at 08:30 ET and CoreWeave after the close, then Huang’s response deadline Wednesday and Nvidia earnings Nov 17.

- Asia closed higher with KOSPI outperforming +4.4%. EU indices +0.3-1.6%. US futures +0.2%. Gold -1.4%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -3.2%, WTI -2.8%; Crypto: BTC +0.3%, ETH -0.4%.

Asia

- China Oct Trade Balance: $105.3B v $125.9Be; Exports Y/Y: 32.5% v 36.9%e; Imports Y/Y: 41.9% v 33.6%e (**Note: surplus exceeded $1T for first 10 months of year and on course for annual record).

- Japan BOJ Summary of Opinions stressed that was right to keep raising rate in line with econ, prices; Should raise rate again and not be overly cautious on next hike.

- Japan Sept Current Account Balance: ¥2.372T v ¥3.300Te v ¥4.062T prior; Trade Balance (BoP Basis): -¥187.5B v -¥225.8Be v.

- Japan Sept Household Spending Y/Y: -6.8% v -3.1%e.

- Japan Oct Bank Lending Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior.

- Japan sold 30-year JGB Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.8470% v 4.1000% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.36x v 3.88x prior.

- Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence: -15 v -13 prior.

- Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 79.2 v 80.4 prior.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 63.1 v 66.2 prior.

- RBNZ’s Conway (chief economist): domestic Inflation was too high and saw two-ways risks around the 4.4% forecast; MPC agreed to need to raise rates further.

Global conflict/tensions

- Qatar-Pakistan proposal had revived serious US-Iran negotiations, with the US agreeing to allow enrichment in Iran up to 3.67% and Iran accepting.

- President Trump stated there was growing momentum toward ending the conflict and that a renewed US military offensive was unlikely for now.

Europe

- UK Oct BRC LFL Sales Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0% prior.

- Bank de France (BdF) Monthly Economic Survey noted that the domestic economy was expected to avoid recession in the final quarter of the year, Saw Q4 growth as moderate.

Americas

- President Trump stated that he would stand by US Def Sec Hegseth if he’s impeached (**Note: Articles of Impeachment have been introduced in the House of Representatives against Defense Sec Hegseth (as expected).

- Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Gov Rodriguez: No rush to cut rates again following Nov surprise easing.

- Mexico Central Bank Dep Gov Borja noted that his vote for keeping rates on hold did not meant the rate cut was rushed; Rate hold was highly probable.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.28% at 10,812.85, DAX +1.19% at 26,577.82, CAC-40 +1.00% at 8,315.65, IBEX-35 +1.44% at 20,026.42, FTSE MIB +1.63% at 52,238.50, SMI +0.47% at 15,016.00, S&P 500 Futures +0.08%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities push toward record highs, with the FTSE MIB up 1.6%, the IBEX 35 up 1.4%, the DAX up 1.2%, the CAC 40 up 1.0% and the FTSE 100 up 0.3%, as crude drops another 1% to $91.56, its lowest since early September and below $100, on growing hopes for US-Iran talks that dismantle the stagflationary premium weighing on European industrial and consumer margins. Single-stock moves are led by Mayr-Melnhof Karton up about 16.5% on the sale of 70% of its Packaging business at a €2.4B enterprise value, which brings €1.8B to €1.9B of cash proceeds and a planned €0.5B to €0.6B special distribution, LEM Holding up 11% on 34% H1 bookings growth, and Funding Circle up 9% on another FY26 upgrade, while NewPrinces falls 13.5% as the nine-month EBITDA margin compressed to 5.8% from 8.1% and the group swung to a €5.5M net loss, and Ferrexpo drops 6% after suspending Ukrainian iron-ore production to preserve working capital under restricted Black Sea logistics. Semiconductors rebound with Infineon up 4.5% on a record Q4 and an FY27 outlook for more than 20% revenue growth to about €20B, and Soitec up 4.5% on TSMC’s strong October revenue, while the oil retreat lifts IAG and Finnair (+2.5% each), Wizz Air (+2%), Lufthansa and Ryanair (+1.5% each) and pressures BP (-2%), Shell, Equinor, Vår Energi and Repsol (-1.5% each). The macro hinge is October US CPI, with a blowout jobs report last Friday lifting CME-implied odds of a December Fed hike to 84% from 74% a week earlier, so a hotter print would test Europe’s record-chasing benchmark, while CoreWeave’s results and the prospective Anthropic IPO are set to gauge whether the AI investment cycle survives last week’s politically driven semiconductor and software rout.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: IAG [IAG.UK] +2.5%, Finnair [FIA1S.FI] +2.5%, Wizz Air [WIZZ.UK] +2.0%, Lufthansa [LHA.DE] +1.5%, Ryanair [RYA.IE] +1.5% (airlines gained as Brent fell about 2.5% on signs of US-Iran de-escalation), Scandic Hotels [SHOT.SE] +2.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose more than 20% to SEK1.33bn and free cash flow reached SEK945m, ahead of the integration of Dalata’s hotel operations).

Technology: Infineon [IFX.DE] +4.5% (record Q4 and FY27 outlook for more than 20% revenue growth to about €20bn, with segment margin rising into the mid-20s), Soitec [SOI.FR] +4.5% (semiconductor read-through from the sharp US and Asian chip rebound and strong TSMC October revenue), LEM Holding [LEHN.CH] +11.0% (H1 bookings rose 34%, EBIT more than doubled and net profit nearly tripled; FY sales guided to CHF310–330m with a low-to-mid-teens EBIT margin), Oxford Instruments [OXIG.UK] +1.0% (H1 order intake rose 44%, adjusted operating profit increased 22% and adjusted EPS advanced 29%).

Energy: BP [BP.UK] -2.0%, Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.5%, Vår Energi [VAR.NO] -1.5%, Equinor [EQNR.NO] -1.5%, Repsol [REP.ES] -1.5% (oil producers tracked Brent lower after reduced expectations of renewed US strikes on Iran).

Consumer staples: Austevoll Seafood [AUSS.NO] +5.5% (Q3 adjusted EBITDA jumped to NOK1.13bn from NOK651m as lower farming costs and improved price realisation offset weakness in Peru), Lerøy Seafood [LSG.NO] +3.5% (Q3 operational EBIT rebounded to NOK459m from NOK15m on lower farming costs and stronger Market Operations, with debt reduced by NOK676m), NewPrinces [NWL.IT] -13.5% (nine-month EBITDA margin fell to 5.8% from 8.1% and the group swung to a €5.5m net loss as energy and transport costs rose).

Industrials/defence: NTG Nordic Transport [NTG.DK] -3.5% (sold off after Q3 revenue and EBIT only modestly beat consensus while FY guidance merely reiterated the upgrade pre-announced in October).

Financials: Funding Circle [FCH.UK] +9.0% (strong autumn SME demand prompted another FY26 upgrade, implying PBT of at least £44m versus £42m consensus).

Materials: Mayr-Melnhof Karton [MMK.AT] +16.5% (selling 70% of its Packaging business at a €2.4bn enterprise value, generating expected cash proceeds of €1.8–1.9bn and enabling a planned €0.5–0.6bn special distribution), K+S [SDF.DE] +1.5% (Q3 EBITDA of €108m beat consensus and the FY range was narrowed to €700–750m, raising its midpoint), Ferrexpo [FXPO.UK] -6.0% (temporarily suspended Ukrainian iron-ore production to preserve working capital amid restricted Black Sea export logistics).

Speakers

- Fed’s Waller noted that Fed should consider a 50bps rate hike in Dec if Oct core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher; Would back a 25bps hike if CPI cools as expected.

- BoE Dep Gov Lombardelli stated that would not rule out potential rate hike at the Dec MPC but added did not have enough information just yet.

- BoE Dep Gov Breeden noted that companies were now very good at adapting to cost shocks.

- ECB's Moulin (France) stated that saw positive signs on energy prices. Saw France 2026 GDP growth at 0.3%.

- ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist) noted that CPI was seen just over 4% by end-2026; prudent to hike in December as things stand. Expect core, food inflation to quicken.

- ECB's Kazaks (Latvia) noted that was still appropriate to act in a gradual way; policy still needed some hawkish edge.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Nov Minutes noted that members were fully prepared to adjust monetary policy.

- US, Russia and Ukraine began talks in Abu Dhabi.

Currencies

- USD broadly steady with focus on upcoming US Oct CPI data. Dealers noted that reading could provide clues on the timing of any potential further interest-rate hikes by the Fed. Markets currently see approx. 85% chance of a 25bps hike at Dec meeting. Markets then see approx. 90% chance of a hike at the Jan 2027 meeting if paused in Dec (67% for 25bps hike and 21% for 50bps hike). Fed’s Waller added some hawkish sentiment believing that a 50bps hike might be necessary if US Core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher.

- EUR/USD at 1.1235 by mid-session; USD/JPY at 158 neighborhood.

- Bond yields lower aided by oil prices but hawkish comments by Fed’s Waller offset some of the impact. Brent oil price tested below $90/barrel (lowest since Aug) . The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.25%, France 10-year Oat at 4.68% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.12%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.88%; 10-year JGB: 2.68%.

Economic data

- (NO) Norway Q4 Consumer Confidence: -22.5 v -19.1 prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.7% prelim.

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prelim.

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.7% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 10.0% v 11.6% prior.

- (FI) Finland Sept Industrial Production M/M: +2.0% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 1.3% prior.

- (FR) France Q3 ILO Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.4%e.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Private Sector Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 3.7% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Industrial Orders M/M: 1.8% v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: 8.4% v 3.8% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Industry Production Value Y/Y: -3.7% v +5.7% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Service Production Value Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.3% prior.

- (NO) Norway Oct CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.7%e.

- (NO) Norway Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e.

- (DK) Denmark Oct CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Sept Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v -1.7% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e (annual pace moves back within CPI target range for the 1st time in 6 months).

- (CZ) Czech Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4% prelim.

- (CZ) Czech Sept Import Price Index Y/Y: 8.3% v 5.8% prior; Export Price Index Y/Y: 5.7% v 3.9% prior.

- (AT) Austria Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.6% v -0.2% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Oct International Reserves (ISK): 932B v 923B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Q3 Unemployment Rate: 33.7% v 33.6% prior.

- (GR) Greece Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.6% v 6.3% prior.

- (GR) Greece Oct CPI Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.0% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.1% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (EU) European Union opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 2031 and 2046 NGEU bonds via syndicate.

- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €2.995B vs. €2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2.75% July 2036 DSL bonds; Avg Yield: 3.329% v 3.463% prior.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €1.59B vs. €1.0-2.0B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month bills.

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.55B vs. ZAR2.55B indicated in 2033, 2039 and 2042 bonds.

- (UK) DMO sold £1.0B in 5.375% Jan 2056 Gilts; Avg Yield: 5.540% v 5.517% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.75x v 3.84x prior; Tail: 0.3bps v 0.3bps prior.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK20.0B vs. SEK20.0B indicated in 3-month and 9-month bills.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:25 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3-month and 12-month bills.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) (prior €16.839B with 88 bids recd).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 06:00 (US) Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism: 97.9e v 97.9 prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Sept Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: +1.5%e v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -4.3% prior.

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Nov Minutes.

- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell €1.0-2.0B in 6-month and 9-month Bills.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 07:00 (UR) Ukraine Oct CPI M/M: No est v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.0% prior.

- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.0% prior.

- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on CPI data.

- 07:30 (UK) BOE’s Lombardelli at BOE watchers event.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Oct 24th: No est v +16.8K prior (w/e Oct 10th).

- 08:30 (US) Oct CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Core CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct CPI NSA Index: 337.226e v 336.940 prior; Core CPI Index: 339.684e v 338.896 prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Real Avg hourly earning Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior; Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 (IT) ECB’s Cipollone (Italy).

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes.

- 11:45 (IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report.

- 12:30 (ES) ECB's Escriva (Spain).

- 13:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Summary of Deliberations.

- 13:30 (US) Fed’s Schmid.

- 15:00 (NZ) RBNZ publishes Financial Stability Report (FSR).

- 15:30 (US) Fed’s Bowman.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.6%e v 2.6% prior.

- 18:30 (US) Fed’s Paulson.

- 18:30 (US) Fed’s Bowman.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Nov 1-10th Exports Y/Y: No est v 102.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 65.5% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q3 Home Loans Value Q/Q: -8.0%e v -5.2% prior; Investor Loan Value Q/Q: No est v -10.2% prior; Owner-Occupier Loan Value Q/Q: No est v -1.9% prior.

- 21:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 1-year and 7-year bonds.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell 3-month and 12-month bills.

- 23:00 (SG) MAS to sell 4-week, 12-week and 36-week bills.