Riksbank Minutes – November 2026

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

All governors underscored that the rate hike to 2.0% should be seen as a start of a natural normalization.

A common theme was that the governors are more worried about the inflation outlook, while they are more confident in the growth prospects for the Swedish economy.

Regarding the timing, Jansson explicitly did not close the door for a hike in December, while Seim did not provide clear guidance but argued for acting early. Thedéen reiterated the rate path and seemed to lean towards two hikes early next year. Bunge did not offer any explicit guidance on the rate path but argued for gradual hikes, while Hjelm's main scenario was one more hike.

All in all, the minutes were fairly in line with expectations, but on the hawkish side. The uncertainty is high, but all governors focus more on indicators showing rising price pressures rather than actual spot inflation. We stick to our forecast of two more hikes in February and March to 2.50%.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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