Gold’s parabolic run, Silver’s breakout, and the Fed’s surrender to inflation [Video]

In a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with veteran trader and market analyst Greg Weldon, founder of Weldon Financial, to discuss the accelerating bull market in gold and silver, Federal Reserve policy, global de-dollarization, and what it all means for investors.

Precious metals at multi-year highs

Greg Weldon opened the discussion by calling the moment a “victory lap.” 

Gold, silver, and major mining ETFs like GDX, SIL, and SALJ are all at multi-year or all-time weekly highs. Mining shares such as Kinross, Pan American, Newmont, and IAMGOLD are all surging.

Silver in particular has been the most volatile. Weldon noted that key price levels have been defended in the past through interventions—whether by bullion banks or other players—but now the market looks primed to break free. He compared today’s setup to currency interventions in the 1990s, where central banks could only delay the inevitable.

He argued that if silver pushes and closes above $40, it would make headlines and spark a new wave of demand. In his view, the gold-to-silver ratio is likely headed back toward 60, which would imply silver prices above $50 an ounce.

Gold’s low open interest signals room to run

While silver has been choppy, Weldon described gold as “parabolic.” What makes the move more powerful is that open interest in COMEX gold futures remains historically low. This rally is not being driven by speculators. It’s being driven by central bank and BRICS accumulation.

Weldon emphasized that institutional investors are still largely absent. Even if Wall Street portfolios shifted to a modest 3 percent allocation in gold, it would barely scratch the surface of potential demand.

Inflation, Fed policy, and the Dollar

Weldon highlighted that inflation remains entrenched, particularly in services. Roughly 42 percent of CPI service components are running above 4 percent year over year. More than 60 percent are above 3 percent, and over 20 percent are above 5 percent. Only 12 percent are at or below the Fed’s target.

Electricity is back up to 5 percent, and base effects in energy prices are about to flip deflation into strong positive contributions. Inflation pressures are far from gone.

At the same time, the consumer is showing signs of stress. Revolving credit is contracting for the first time since 2008–09 and the pandemic. Auto loan delinquencies are now above 5 percent, worse than during the financial crisis. Lower-income households expect real incomes to shrink by as much as 2 percent over the next year.

Despite this, Jerome Powell and the Fed are talking about rate cuts. Weldon believes Powell knows the “strong consumer” and “strong labor market” narratives are faulty. With Fed Funds at 4.25 percent and $535 billion in quantitative tightening still rolling, policy is overly restrictive. In his words, the Fed will be forced to “acquiesce” to higher inflation in order to protect growth and service debt. That path is dollar bearish, and metals bullish.

Strategic metals and De-Dollarization

The federal government recently added silver and copper to its list of strategic minerals. Weldon said this is a positive signal for the sector, but warned it could also encourage more supply.

The larger forces remain geopolitical. China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.35 trillion to below $800 billion. For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries.

Weldon noted that the BRICS initiative to move away from the dollar is advancing, even if it draws little attention in mainstream headlines. Sanctions, tariffs, and asset seizures have only strengthened the urgency among nations to seek alternatives. In his view, these are long-term dollar bearish forces that reinforce the bull case for precious metals.

Investment takeaways

Weldon’s message to investors was blunt: just be long. Precious metals are in a buy-and-hold phase. Those already positioned should stay patient despite volatility.

He acknowledged that new entrants face a tricky question about when to buy, given how far prices have already moved. But he maintained that long-term upside remains significant. 

For those who are not yet involved, he suggested working with professional commodity trading advisors who can manage risk across metals, currencies, bonds, and equities.

Conclusion

The conversation painted a clear picture of a pivotal moment. Precious metals are breaking out to new highs. Inflation pressures remain sticky. The Fed is preparing to cut rates despite prices still running above target. De-dollarization is gaining momentum.

Weldon summed it up simply: the purchasing power of money is eroding, and gold and silver are the ultimate hedge.

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