Gold steadies above $3,500 as Fed bets, tariff case, and jobs data guide outlook

Gold (XAUUSD) remains steady near the $3,500 mark as markets weigh shifting Fed expectations and growing geopolitical risks. Recent signs of market stability triggered short-term selling, but buyers quickly stepped in. A cooling labor market and legal uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have added complexity to the outlook. Meanwhile, gold continues to attract attention as traders await key economic data and a likely shift in Fed policy.

Gold price stable as markets brace for US jobs data and Fed outlook

Gold’s status as a defensive hedge has slightly weakened as market tensions ease. Signs of stability in bond and equity markets triggered short-term selling pressure. Gold’s extended rally triggered a technical correction from overbought levels. Meanwhile, a brief bounce in the dollar index failed to shift the broader bearish outlook. Job openings dropped to 7.18 million in July, reinforcing expectations of a cooling labor market and potential Fed rate cuts.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Trump’s legal battle over tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty. The case over his tariff actions has reached the Supreme Court, as his administration challenges an earlier ruling that declared the tariffs unlawful. However, this legal dispute could elevate market risk, potentially driving renewed interest in gold.

Markets now await key U.S. data releases, including ADP employment, jobless claims, and the ISM Services PMI. Despite other releases, the focus shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. The upcoming figures are likely to guide the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. In the meantime, any dips in gold are likely to attract buyers, especially with Fed rate cuts on the horizon.

Gold breaks ascending triangle after fifth attempt, targets $3,700

The gold chart below shows a classic ascending triangle breakout on the daily timeframe. This bullish continuation pattern developed over several months. Initially, the horizontal resistance near $3,500 was tested five times before the price finally broke through. The sequence of failed attempts reflected ongoing bearish pressure, thereby reinforcing the strength of resistance near the top of the range. Despite repeated rejections, the emergence of higher lows created a rising support line, underscoring persistent buying interest.

The rising trendline signals increasing demand and steady accumulation by buyers. As price compressed between the rising lows and static resistance, breakout potential increased. Eventually, gold broke above $3,500 in early September 2025 after multiple failed attempts, with the fifth test proving successful. The breakout gained immediate traction, fueling a sustained rally and validating the technical formation. The breakout zone now acts as key support.

Currently, gold is holding ground near $3,548 after pushing past its earlier resistance level. Volume and momentum continue to support the bullish move. The projected target from this breakout lies between $3,650 and $3,700. Though a brief pullback or retest of the $3,500 level is possible, the broader uptrend remains intact. However, current price behavior reinforces the breakout’s strength and suggests the trend remains firmly upward.

Gold outlook: Technical strength supports higher targets near $3,700

Gold holds firm around $3,500, backed by both technical strength and supportive fundamentals. The confirmed breakout above a key resistance zone signals continued bullish momentum. In addition, dovish Fed expectations, combined with global uncertainty, help maintain a favorable environment for gold. While short-term dips may occur, strong underlying demand continues to drive the uptrend. With key employment figures approaching, gold looks positioned to extend its gains.

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