Gold rebounds amid USD weakness and geopolitical uncertainties

Gold prices rebounded, crossing 2,620 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday, as the US dollar weakened, and investors sought clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December currently stands at 59%, reflecting a slight decline from previous days.

Market participants also closely monitor potential cabinet picks by US President-elect Donald Trump, whose protectionist policies could influence gold prices. Anticipating critical appointments that may shape Trump’s economic policies adds to market sensitivity.

Growing geopolitical tensions worldwide heighten demand for safe-haven assets, boosting gold’s appeal. After recent declines, the fundamental factors supporting gold’s longer-term ascent are prompting investors to engage at current levels they perceive as attractive.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart: The market has completed a correction to 2,537 on the H4 chart and is now poised for a growth wave aiming for 2,688. If this target is reached, a potential retracement to 2,610 may occur before a further push towards 2,790. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is gearing upwards from below zero.

H1 chart: On the H1 chart, gold is progressing through the initial phase of a growth wave to 2,688. The price has currently stabilised around 2,609, forming a tight consolidation range. An upward break from this range is anticipated to target 2,660. Once this is achieved, a brief pullback to 2,609 might unfold before continuing the ascent towards 2,688. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, indicating strong upward momentum with its signal line heading towards 80 from above 50.