Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD on its way to piercing $1,600

XAUUSD Current price: $1,631.50

• US government bond yields trimmed early losses, curve shrunk a bit.
• Upbeat US data underpinned the greenback in a risk-averse environment.
• XAUUSD maintains its bearish stance after a modest corrective advance.

Spot gold reached a fresh 2-year low on Tuesday, bottoming at $1,621.04 a troy ounce early in the European session. XAUUSD recovered ahead of the US opening, extending intraday gains to as high as $1,642.39 amid easing dollar demand. The better performance of equities weighed on the greenback, as Asian and European stock markets started the day with a positive tone. EU indexes, however, turned south after Wall Street’s opening, with US indexes trading mixed.

Meanwhile, US government bond yields lost momentum and reverted part of their Monday’s gains, also weighing on the American currency throughout the first half of the day. Upbeat US data provided fresh impetus to the greenback, pushing XAUUSD to the current $1,630 price zone. Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.2% MoM in August, while CB Consumer Confidence improved to 108 in September, much better than anticipated.

At the time being, the 2-year Treasury note yields 4.30%, marginally lower for the day, while the 10-year note yield is at 3.96%, up from Monday’s close. Meanwhile, the underlying growth and inflation concerns limit the advance of USD rivals. Recession and inflation-related concerns will likely keep the dollar on the winning side, regardless of intraday swings.

Gold price short-term technical outlook

The daily chart shows that gold trades at the lower end of its weekly range and that the risk remains skewed to the downside. XAUUSD develops well below bearish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $1,688, also the previous week's high. The Momentum indicator heads south within negative levels, while the RSI recovered modestly and currently hovers around 30.

The recovery lost momentum in the near term, as the 4-hour chart shows that the pair retreated before reaching any moving average, all of them maintaining their downward slopes. At the same time, the Momentum indicator advanced within negative levels, but the RSI already resumed its slide and stands at around 38. A test of the $1,600 area seems likely in the upcoming sessions if gold breaks below the aforementioned low.

Support levels: 1,621.00 1,611.30 1,598.90

Resistance levels: 1,649.70 1,661.70 1,678.50

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