Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sellers aligned around $4,600

XAU/USD Current price: $4,555

• Geopolitical uncertainty revived the US Dollar's safe-haven status.
• Iran seems unwilling to negotiate the end of hostilities with the United States.
• XAU/USD loses its near-term bullish potential despite holding intraday gains.

Spot Gold hovers around $4,550 in the American session on Wednesday, advancing for a second consecutive day and turning positive for the week. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty took its toll on financial markets in the second half of the day, as Iran seems unwilling to give in to the United States (US) demands.

Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East remains on pause, yet market players are starting to bet back on renewed tensions. Earlier in the day, headlines pointed out that Pakistan delivered a White House 15-point plan to Iranian authorities to end the war, but there is no confirmed date for a possible US-Iran talk. Also, and according to Iran’s Press TV, Tehran will end the war at the time of its own choosing. Even further, the country wants international recognition of authority over the Hormuz Strait.

Crude oil prices remain relatively quiet, although the US Dollar (USD) recovered its safe-haven appeal with the headlines, and trades with a firmer tone across.

A relatively quiet macroeconomic calendar throughout the week is likely to keep markets attentive to Middle East developments and war-related headlines.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair's 4-hour chart shows fading bullish momentum. The pair is stuck in range after briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark. The same chart shows that Gold trades below the downward-sloping 100- and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while above a flat 20- period 20 SMA. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator keeps heading north above its midline, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere near 50, indicating the absence of directional conviction.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is bearish after the latest sharp slide drove price well below the 20-day SMA near $4,960, and below the 100-day SMA, clustered around $4,610. The latter rejected buyers at the beginning of the day. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA remains at around $4,110, drawing a line in the sand. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims lower below its midline, while the RSI indicator rebounded from oversold territory but remains below the 50 line near 36, indicating that bears retain control despite a modest corrective bounce.

Initial resistance now stands at around $4,620, followed by the $4,800 price zone. A more relevant one comes at the 20-day SMA around $4,960. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the late pullback low near $4,470, followed by the $4,400 threshold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)