Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits fresh record highs above $3,500; what next?

Gold extends its six-day winning streak to clinch fresh lifetime highs above $3,500 early Tuesday.
The US Dollar rebounds from over one-month lows, limiting Gold’s upside for now.
Fed rate cut bets and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical woes keep Gold underpinned.
Gold eyes more gains even as the RSI enters the overbought region on the daily sticks.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold has quickly reversed an uptick to fresh all-time-highs above $3,500, gathering pace for a sustained move again above that level. All eyes now turn to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI due later in the day for further trading directives.

Gold capitalizes on Fed rate outlook, geopolitics

Gold extends its bullish momentum into a sixth straight day, but the further upside appears capped (for now), in the face of a resurgent buying interest in the US Dollar (USD).

The USD sees a short-covering bounce from over one-month troughs across the board, driven by profit taking, as traders cash in before the releases of crucial US business surveys and employment data due this week.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is on the radar next as speculations over a jumbo interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month grow. A 25 basis points (bps) September rate cut is fully baked in, with the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool showing a 90% chance.

The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to advance to 49 in August from 48 in July, remaining in contraction.

On the data disappointment, the Greenback could come under renewed selling pressure, keeping the record rally in Gold alive.

Additionally, concerns over the Fed’s autonomy amidst US President Donald Trump’s continued efforts to rope in more dovish appointments to the US central bank remain a drag on the USD, while supporting the bright metal.

The geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine also remain in focus, underpinning the traditional safe-haven Gold. On Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine plans new strikes deep into Russia after weeks of intensified attacks on Russian energy assets, per Reuters.

Trump noted last week that he was deeply disappointed, particularly in light of his recent attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the war.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold eyes more upside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not heavily overbought. The leading indicator is currently near 71.

The Bull Cross of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA also keeps the buoyant tone intact around the bullion.

The immediate topside hurdle is seen at the new record high of $,3509, above which the $3,550 psychological level will be challenged.

Conversely, any pullback will challenge the intraday of $3,475 initially, followed by this week’s low of $3,437.

The $3,400 round level will be attacked on a sustained break below the latter.

Economic Indicator

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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