Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains upward traction ahead of US CPI

XAU/USD Current price: $4,788

• News that Israel is opening negotiations with Lebanon spurred optimism.
• The United States Consumer Price Index is foreseen at 3.3% YoY in March.
• XAU/USD gains upward traction in the near term, weekly high at $4,875.

Spot Gold shows some signs of life on Thursday, after temporarily reviving buyers’ enthusiasm on war headlines. The XAU/USD pair topped $4,857 after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East war, claiming diplomatic talks were underway. The ceasefire included Israel, but did not include Lebanon. Continued attacks between the latter and Israel somehow brought back risk aversion, providing support to the US Dollar.

The mood flipped again, turning positive in the current American session, on headlines indicating that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had opened negotiations with Lebanon. The Greenback turned south, and XAU/USD approaches the aforementioned weekly high.

Additionally, the US released some discouraging figures. The final estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 0.5%, down from the preliminary estimate of 0.7% and the previous 4.4%. Weekly unemployment claims, in the meantime, increased to 219K for the week ending April 4, worse than the 210K expected and higher than the previous week's print of 203K. The dismal numbers added to the broad USD weakness.

Attention remains on war-related headlines, while investors await the release of the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Friday. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is forecast to rise 3.3% YoY, up from the 2.4% posted in February. The expected reading is likely to sound some alarms and fuel speculation of an upcoming rate hike in the US.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture for XAU/USD is bullish. In the 4-hour chart, the metal holds comfortably above its 20-, 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs), keeping the near-term bias tilted to the upside as the shorter 20-period SMA at roughly $4,725 reinforces immediate trend support. The Momentum indicator remains above its midline, but lacks directional strength, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers near 60, reflecting buyers' dominance without confirming another leg north.

On the downside, initial support is at the 20-period SMA around $4,725, which could guide a deeper pullback toward the 100-period SMA near $4,619. Beyond the weekly peak, a significant roof emerges at the 200-period SMA near $4,888.

The wider picture also skews the risk to the upside. In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA near $4,690.73, and the 100-day SMA around $4,674.29. Far below, the 200-day SMA stands close to $4,171.91. At the same time, the RSI indicator advances near 51, while the 14-day Momentum indicator has turned modestly positive, hinting at recovering bullish pressure as long as price stays above nearby dynamic supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)