Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyeing a firm break above $1800, US GDP in focus

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery from eight-day lows of $1763 and rallied as high as $1782 after the US dollar’s sell-off accelerated alongside the decline in the Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the monetary policy settings unchanged on Wednesday. It was the dismissal from Fed Chair Powell on tapering talks, which hammered the greenback across the board while the 10-year US rates fell from near 1.65% to 1.61%. While acknowledging improvement in the economic outlook, courtesy of the successful vaccination drives, Powell downplayed concerns over rising inflation, calling them transitory.

Gold is building on Fed-induced turnaround this Thursday, gaining additional benefit from US President Joe Biden’s push for $a 1.8 trillion spending package. Expectations of ongoing policy support from the government and the central bank offer a much-needed boost to the bulls. Heading into a flurry of critical US economic data, including the advance Q1 GDP, gold has entered a phase of upside consolidation, as the US dollar attempts a bounce across the board. However, gold is likely to resume its uptrend as the greenback continues to feel the pull of gravity amid dovish Fed expectations.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Daily chart

Gold continues to face stiff resistance on every attempt to take on the $1790 hurdle. Although the XAU bulls remain hopeful, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds within the bullish region.

A break above the multi-day highs of $1790 could expose powerful resistance near $1797-$1798 levels, which is the confluence of April 21 and 22 highs.

The next critical hurdle awaits at $1800, where the 100-daily moving average (DMA) coincides.

Only a daily closing above that level would revive the bullish momentum.

On the flip side, Wednesday’s low is the next relevant downside target. Meanwhile, the upward-pointing 21-DMA at $1758 is the last line of defense for the XAU bulls.