Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers defend $5,000

XAU/USD Current price: $5,10

• Oil production interrupted in the Middle East amid the Iran war spurred panic.
• The United States will publish key inflation data on Wednesday and Friday.
• XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish in the near term, $5,000 continues to attract buyers.

Spot Gold trades with a negative tone on Monday, amid persistent demand for the US Dollar (USD) due to risk aversion. News that several oil-producing countries have cut output hit financial markets hard at the weekly opening, pushing the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $110, its highest in three years. Oil producers claimed they are unable to export through the Strait of Hormuz amid threats from Iran.

Oil however, begun correcting lower on news the G7 was planning to release emergency crude reserves to stabilize markets, further falling after Wall Street opening, as US stocks shrugged off concerns and turned positive.

The USD trimmed most of its early intraday gains across the FX board, yet tensions are far from over. As per Gold, the bright metal spent the day confined to a tight range, bouncing from near $5,000 on USD’s pullback. Despite persistent concerns, investors are still seeking safety in the Greenback and leaving gold aside.

The precious metal is unlikely to meet the market’s favor in the near term, although upcoming United States (US) data can change it all. The country is scheduled to release inflation updates on Wednesday and Friday, in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, respectively. The first will likely be more relevant as it is more updated, while the PCE data is from January, with the release delayed by the latest US government shutdown.

US inflation figures gain relevance ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement next week. Indeed, the central bank is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates on hold amid uncertainty related to energy prices. Still, the figures could trigger some major concerns if inflation continued rising even before the Middle East war started.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades witha mildly bearish bias, as price holds just below the 20-and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMAs) near $5,120, with the shorter one gaining downward traction. At the same time, the pair is back above a rising 200-period MA at roughly $5,070, with slides below it being quickly reverted. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator hovers close to its midline after a negative swing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizes in the mid-40s, both reflecting the latest recovery yet pointing to fading bullish pressure-

Initial support emerges at the 200-period MA around $5,070, with a break exposing the recent swing low near $5,000. A break below the latter could open the door to steeper declines. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the confluence of the 20- and 100-period MAs in the $5,120 zone, where failure to reclaim would preserve the corrective tone. A sustained recovery above that band would open the way back toward $5,180, while a decisive push beyond $5,200 could expose the prior high at $5,370.

Technical readings in the daily chart suggest XAU/USD could still recover its shine. The pair is holding above the rising 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which align as a classic uptrend stack and keep buyers in control on pullbacks. Nevertheless, the pair keeps pressuring the shorter one, a handful of $ below the current level. Finally, technical indicators hold within positive levels, although with uneven strength. The Momentum indicator extends higher, yet the RSI turned south, reflecting the absence of clear directional strength.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)