Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls battling it out ahead of key US data

Gold (XAU/USD) snaps three-day losing streak and trades with mild gains around $1930 on Wednesday, underpinned by the downbeat market mood. The risk tone remains fragile, as concerns over the global economic recovery return after the US Consumer Confidence disappointment. The Conference Board’s index slumped to 84.8 in August, the lowest level since 2014. The continued rise in the coronavirus cases across Asia and Europe adds to the jittery markets. The economic worries offset the US-China trade deal optimism, benefiting the traditional safe-haven gold.

Meanwhile, the yellow metal could benefit from a fresh bout of the US dollar weakness if the US Durable Goods data come in weaker-than-expected. Also, dovish expectations from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, in light of the pandemic, could undermine the greenback, rendering gold-positive. Powell is expected to speak about the Fed’s outlook on inflation and monetary policy on Thursday, at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Gold: Hourly chart

Short-term technical perspective  

Gold has kept its range below the 50-hourly Simple Moving Average (HMA), currently at $1932, since Monday’s American session.

Meanwhile, the price has regained the 21-HMA at $1926, consolidating in a tight range in Asia. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flatlined just above the 50 level, keeping the buyers hopeful.

Therefore, the spot awaits a fresh impetus to break through the 50-HMA barrier, with the next barrier seen at a horizontal 100-HMA of $1936.

Further north, the bulls will take on the critical resistance at $1953, which is the horizontal 200-HMA. A daily closing above the latter will negate the near-term bearish bias in the spot.

Alternatively, a break below the 21-HMA support could open floors towards the $1914-1912 region, the confluence of August 25 and 21 lows. Sellers will aim for the $1900 mark should the above support yields in.

It’s also worth noting that the spot has formed a Doji candle on the daily chart after falling for the third straight day on Tuesday. This could imply that the bears are losing its grip, although Powell’s could be the key decider for the bullion’s next price direction.

Gold: Additional levels to consider