Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bounces, but downside risks persist amid US-Iran tensions

Gold is making a tepid recovery attempt, while trading close to $4,750 in the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, having lost over 2% on Tuesday. The focus will remain on the US-Iran geopolitical scenario in the absence of top-tier US economic data later in the day.

Gold: Will the rebound last?

Early Wednesday, Gold reverses a part of the previous sharp decline after sellers lurked once again above the $4,800 level.

The latest uptick in the bullion is mainly sponsored by diminishing haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), as markets breathe a brief sigh of relief on US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a unilateral extension to the US-Iran ceasefire.

However, it remains to be seen if the bright metal sustains its rebound as the US-Iran peace negotiations have stalled, and Trump now awaits a “unified proposal” from Tehran amid continued blockade of Iranian ports.

Iran's military warned of powerful attacks on predetermined targets in view of repeated threats by US President Trump, adding that they “won't reopen Hormuz while naval blockade persists.

According to the latest report carried by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the US blocked Iraq’s dollar shipments to squeeze its Iran-backed militias.

These geopolitical dramas concerning the Middle East will likely keep the downside cushioned in the USD.

Additionally, strong US Retail Sales data revived bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this year, supporting the buck while limiting the Gold price upside.

“Retail Sales jumped 1.7% last month, the largest rise since March 2025, after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in February, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said,” per Reuters.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair-designate Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings signaled markets that he may be less dovish than his comments indicated if his nomination is approved.

Looking ahead, Gold will remain at the mercy of the dynamics around the Middle East conflict, with traders awaiting the two-day talks in London from Wednesday to advance a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The talks would be led by the United Kingdom (UK) and France, involving military planners from more than 30 countries.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,757.33, holding a constructive near-term bullish bias as price sits above the 21-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,684 and $4,732, and marginally over the prior downward resistance trend-line break zone near $4,750. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line, hinting at neutral but stabilizing momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper boundary of the falling wedge near $4790. A daily candlestick closing above the latter is crucial to confirming an upside break from a falling wedge formation. The next topside barrier is at the 50-day SMA around $4,883, where a sustained move higher would open the way for a more decisive recovery. On the downside, initial support is seen around the former trend-line barrier turned floor near $4,750, followed by the 100-day SMA at about $4,732 and the 21-day SMA close to $4,684; a break below these clustered supports would expose deeper demand around the 200-day SMA near $4,237.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)