Gold Price Forecast: Tide turns in favor of XAU/USD buyers, US jobs data awaited

Gold price broke its consolidative phase to the upside on Monday, looking north on Tuesday.
US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields extend correction ahead of key US jobs data.
Gold price needs to reclaim key 50-Daily Moving Average for more upside as the RSI turns bullish.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold price is looking to build on the ongoing upswing early Tuesday, having broken the recent consolidative phase to the upside on the first trading day of the week. The extended correction in the United States Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields is helping Gold price move north.

US JOLTS Job Openings data next of note for Gold price

Following a data-dry start to the week on Monday, all eyes are focussed on a slew of economic data this week, which could further strengthen the case for one more rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, based on the economic resilience and the labor market conditions.

Therefore, Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings data from the United States is expected to show that the number of job openings increased by 9.793M in July, up from the 9.582M print in June. Signs of further tightening in the US employment sector are likely to ramp up hawkish Fed expectations and trigger a fresh rally in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields, dragging Gold price back toward the $1,900 mark.

However, any disappointment in the job openings data is likely to pour cold water on the renewed bets surrounding the final Fed rate hike of 2023. The US Dollar could come under fresh selling pressure in such a case, driving Gold price closer to the $1,950 barrier.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 78.5% probability of the Fed standing pat on interest rates next month but the chances of a hike in the November meeting is now at 51% compared with 57% seen a day ago.

On Monday, Gold price capitalized on the broad-based US Dollar retreat from multi-week peaks, as investors resorted to profit-taking after hawkish Fed Chair Jerome Powell-inspired rally. Also, traders refrained from placing fresh long bets ahead of a slew of economic data this week, including the US PCE inflation and Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price closed Monday above the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,917, yielding a range breakout, having traded between the 21- and 200-DMAs over the last few trading sessions.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is inching higher above the midline, suggesting that the tide has turned in favor of Gold buyers.

Therefore, the further upside is likely to challenge the 50 DMA hurdle at $1,930, above which a fresh run toward the August 7 high of $1,947 will be in the offing. The next relevant resistance is seen at the $1,950 psychological level.

On the downside, initial demand will be seen at the 21 DMA resistance-turned-support of $1,915. Further down, the 200 DMA at $1,911 will test bullish commitments.

Acceptance below the latter on a daily closing basis will reopen floors toward this week’s low of $1,904.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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