Gold Price Forecast: Is there a ceiling for XAU/USD?

XAU/USD Current price: $4,673

• US President Trump threatened tariffs on Nordic countries amid a conflict over Greenland.
• The United States calendar includes GDP and PCE inflation this week.
• XAU/USD pulled back from fresh records, yet the bullish run is far from over.

Spot Gold surged to an all-time high of $4,690 a troy ounce at the weekly opening, fueled by fresh tensions between the United States (US) and Europe. US President Donald Trump threatened a fresh round of tariffs on Denmark and seven other countries, in an attempt to add pressure to seize Greenland.

According to US President Trump, Denmark is unable to protect Greenland from China and Russia, and given that Norway did not award him with the Nobel Prize last year, he no longer needs to care about peace, but instead, he will care about the US. Tariffs of 10% on eight European countries would come into effect on February 1, and will increase to 25% at the beginning of June. Trump also added that levies will continue increasing until he gets a deal “for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” according to what he posted on Truth Social.

Renewed geopolitical tensions pushed investors away from risk assets, with global indexes edging sharply lower to the benefit of safe-haven goods. The US Dollar (USD) initially benefited from the risk-averse environment, but quickly changed course and turned negative across the FX board, further fueling the XAU/USD pair.

Meanwhile, a holiday in the US keeps the macroeconomic calendar empty on Monday, although some key figures will be released on Thursday: the country will publish a revision to Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the delayed Personal Consumption (PCE) Price Index for October and November.

At this point, and given the macro scenario, the Gold rally has no end in sight. Retracements are likely to attract fresh buying, and of course, a steeper bearish correction is on the table. Nevertheless, the case for higher highs remains firm in place, given persistent and mounting uncertainty about what would come next from Trump’s mind.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

According to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bullish and has room to extend its advance. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, with all three trending higher and price holding above them. The 20-period SMA at $4,623.80 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline and ticks marginally higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is also neutral-to-bullish at around 63, supporting a positive bias. Immediate resistance lies at $4,690.81, the record high, and a decisive break above it could extend Gold's advance towards $4,700.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is firmly bullish. The 20-day SMA climbs far above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all three rising sharply, underscoring a firm bullish bias. Price holds above these gauges, and the 20-day SMA at $4,481.83 offers critical dynamic support. Finally, technical indicators are advancing near overbought levels, with the RSI currently at 70, yet without signs of bullish exhaustion.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)