Gold Price Forecast: Can the dollar finally win the battle?

XAUUSD Current price: $1,822.37

• Consumer inflation expectations continue to rise, according to the CB Consumer Confidence survey.
• US indexes trimmed previous gains and trade at their lowest for the week.
• XAUUSD is technically bearish and could soon lose the $1,800 level.

Gold Price retains the sour tone on Tuesday, now trading at around $1,823.00 a troy ounce. The American dollar seesawed between gains and losses throughout the first half of the day, turning higher after the release of discouraging US data. The CB Consumer Confidence Index fell in June to 98.7, its lowest level since February 2021. More relevantly, the survey showed that consumer expectations were sharply down, falling to their lowest in almost a decade, amid increased concerns about inflation, which is expected to keep climbing.

Wall Street tumbled, and major indexes now trade at their lowest for the week, trimming modest Monday’s gains. The greenback benefited from its safe-haven condition, which also tends to benefit the bright metal. In this scenario, XAUUSD consolidates near its weekly low of $1,818.54 a troy ounce, confined to a tight intraday range.

Market players are trying to assess rate hikes and their potential effects on the economy. Most experts foresee an upcoming recession in the US, Europe and the United Kingdom to start the list, as price pressures remain on the rise, forcing central bankers to take more aggressive measures against it. On Tuesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated that her team aims to hike rates by 25 bps in July but added that larger hikes are possible if needed.

Gold Price short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAUUSD shows that the risk is skewed to the downside, although without enough momentum to confirm another leg south. The bright metal is developing below a descending trend line coming from June 16 high, now capping the upside at around $1,840. In the mentioned time frame, technical indicators remain within negative levels but lack directional strength. Moving averages remain flat, but the 20 and 200 SMA converge around $1,840, providing resistance.

Technical readings in the 4-hour chart favor a downward continuation, as a bearish 20 SMA acts as intraday resistance while extending its slide below the longer ones. The Momentum indicator heads marginally lower below its midline, while the RSI indicator hovers around 42, without clear directional strength.

Support levels: 1,814.70 1,803.90 1,789.50

Resistance levels: 1,831.50 1,843.20 1,853.10  

View Live Chart for the XAUUSD