Gold Price Forecast: Bears are not done as the global crisis is just starting

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAUUSD Current price: $1,708.13

Exacerbated recession fears put markets in risk-off mode.
US Federal Reserve’s Waller cooled down expectations for a 100 bps hike.
XAUUSD bounced from below $1,700 but maintains the downward bias.

Gold Price remains on the bearish path, with the bright metal trading at $1,708.00 a troy ounce. It touched an intraday low of $1,697.56, its lowest since August 2021. Risk aversion dominated financial markets for most of the day, pushing the greenback higher against most of its major rivals.

Fears of a recession are once again under the spotlight, as the US reported on Wednesday a new record jump in inflation, currently at 9.1% YoY, despite the Federal Reserve adopting aggressive monetary tightening in March. An economic setback seems inevitable in the US, and most major economies are still battling to recover from the early stages of the pandemic.

The dismal market mood faltered after Wall Street’s opening, helping US indexes to bounce a bit which helped XAUUSD recover from the mentioned 2022 low. The catalyst came from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who argued that markets may have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing a 100 basis points rate hike in July. Nevertheless, stocks remain in the red, with the three major indexes down roughly 1% each.

Gold Price short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAUUSD shows that the metal posted a lower high and a lower low, in line with the dominant trend. Technical indicators resumed their slide within oversold levels, also supporting another leg south, as moving averages head lower far above the current level.

Chances of a firmer recovery seem limited in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have barely lost downward strength near oversold readings. At the same time, moving averages maintain their bearish slopes, with the 20 SMA now providing dynamic resistance at around $1,727.20.

Support levels: 1,697.60 1,685.40 1,677.00

Resistance levels: 1,714.50 1,727.20 1,736.70

View Live Chart for the XAUUSD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 ahead of FOMC policy meeting

AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers near 0.7000 during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling the previous day's pullback from a one-month high as bets for a November RBA rate hike continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie. Meanwhile, the US Dollar consolidates gains from the past two days ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting starting later today, further supporting the currency pair.

USD/JPY consolidates above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY trades above mid-157.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday, looking to build on its recovery from an over one-month low as speculation that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes undermines the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar sits near a one-week high, further supporting the currency pair. Bulls, however, seem hesitant ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday.

Gold trades above $4,000 and a three-month low as focus remains on FOMC

Gold attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, reversing part of the previous day's modest recovery from a three-month low. US bond yields rebound slightly after the recent decline to a three-week low, helping the US Dollar preserve its gains recorded over the past two days and weighing on the non-yielding bullion. The commodity, however, holds above $4,000 as bears seem hesitant ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision.

Bitcoin faces $77,000 support test as Fed decision nears

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing key support levels after falling to $79,250 over the weekend, with persistent selling pressure and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision likely to prolong the top crypto's decline, according to Bitfinex analysts.

Everyone's bracing for a hawkish central bank week. Here's why the surprise could be dovish

Five of the world's major central banks are preparing to announce monetary policy decisions this week, with investors increasingly anticipating higher interest rates as the global energy shock continues to push inflation above target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.