Gold outlook: Post-Fed weakness likely to extend after recovery stall

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

XAU/USD

Gold bounced from new one-month low ($2582), hit on post-Fed 2.3% drop on Wednesday, but gains were so far short-lived.

Recovery stalled at $2626, with subsequent acceleration lower pushed the price again below important (broken) supports at $2605/00 (100DMA / psychological).

Wednesday’s close below these levels generated initial bearish signal, which will be validated on repeated daily close below, with long upper shadow of Thursday’s daily candle, signaling that offers remain strong.

However, temporary base that has formed at $2581 (lows of Wed/Thu / Fibo 76.4% of $2536/$2726) marks solid support which may hold for some time.

Bearish technical studies on daily chart contribute to Gold-negative fundamentals (Fed’s hawkish cut and signals of slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 strongly inflated dollar) and keep near-term risk shifted to the downside.

Immediate bias to remain with bears while the price stays below $2600/05), with stronger upticks to be capped under daily Ichimoku cloud base, reinforced by Kijun-sen ($2631).

Res: 2600; 2605; 2631; 2650.

Sup: 2581; 2564; 2536; 2511.

Interested in XAU/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 2664.25
2. R2 2645.37
3. R1 2621.14
PP 2602.26
1. S1 2578.03
2. S2 2559.15
3. S3 2534.92

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

AUD/USD bounces off weekly low on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

AUD/USD recovers slightly from the weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, act as a tailwind for the buck. Furthermore, diminishing odds of an RBA rate hike in June cap the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report on Friday.

USD/JPY remains close to 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions favor the USD bulls amid Fed rate hike bets and also hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets amid economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, suggesting that dips are likely to be bought into.

Gold bounces off one-week low; upside seems capped on Iran uncertainty

Gold recovers from a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday, as news of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire acts as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, renewed hostilities in the Gulf, along with stalled US-Iran peace talks, keep geopolitical risks in play and should support the USD. Moreover, US-Iran tensions remain supportive of higher Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for higher interest rates for longer. This should cap the non-yielding bullion and warrants caution for bulls.

Bitcoin drops below $65K amid reinforced bear market signals

Bitcoin dipped further below $65,000 on Wednesday, with onchain data from Glassnode signaling a market firmly in a bear phase. The decline has pushed prices back into a key valuation range between the Realized Price and the True Market Mean. Glassnode noted that a key shift in market structure has also emerged.

The upside-down math of debt

In 2010, Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper, Growth in a Time of Debt, which instantly went viral. The main thesis of the paper was that once a government's debt-to-GDP ratio crosses above 90%, a financial crisis and default are around the corner.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.