Gold holds near the $3,300 level, clinging to hope amid Fed pressure and a weaker Dollar

Gold prices managed to recover slightly during Thursday’s Asian session, hovering just below the $3,300 level, as the U.S. dollar pulled back from its recent two-month high. This moderate rebound comes in the aftermath of Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, which saw policymakers maintain the federal funds rate within the 4.25%–4.50% range for the fifth consecutive time. Despite strong pressure from President Trump and his allies to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the idea of a September rate cut, stressing instead that no decision has been made regarding policy easing at upcoming meetings. This tone reinforced expectations that rates may stay elevated for longer, thereby capping gold’s upside potential in the near term.

While Powell’s comments weighed on bullion by reinforcing the Fed’s inflation-fighting stance, a temporary pullback in the dollar provided some breathing room for gold buyers. The greenback, which had surged to its highest level in two months, paused as traders turned their attention to key macroeconomic data, notably the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Price Index 15:30 GMT+3،. This inflation gauge, closely monitored by the Fed, is expected to offer further clarity on the central bank’s policy trajectory and could serve as the next directional driver for both the dollar and gold.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic indicators continue to reflect resilience. ADP’s private payroll report showed a gain of 104,000 jobs in July, following a revised 23,000 drop in June. The advance GDP print revealed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, a sharp rebound from the -0.5% contraction seen in the first quarter. These figures contributed to the dollar’s recent strength and have made markets more cautious about expecting a policy pivot anytime soon. Nonetheless, traders have become wary of making aggressive bets ahead of today’s PCE release, creating an environment where gold found support near the 100-day simple moving average.

From a technical standpoint, the metal has shown tentative signs of stability after briefly dipping toward the $3,275–$3,270 zone, which aligns with the 100-day SMA. A solid floor appears to be forming just above this region, although momentum indicators on the daily chart are still flashing early bearish signals. For a more convincing recovery, gold would need to break above the immediate resistance at $3,309–$3,310. A sustained move beyond this level could trigger short-covering and potentially lift the metal toward the next critical zone near $3,325–$3,326.

Conversely, failure to maintain support above the 100-day SMA could expose gold to renewed selling pressure, with a likely retest of the June low around $3,248–$3,247. A decisive break below that pivot level would open the door for a deeper correction toward the $3,200 psychological mark. For now, the market remains caught between Fed hawkishness and investor caution ahead of pivotal inflation data, with gold prices oscillating in a narrow but tense range awaiting their next catalyst.