Gold forecast: Structural support after bearish move - Is $3,360 breakout ahead?
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Gold respects the $3,300 Fair Value Gap, signaling a possible bullish recovery if $3,360 gives way.
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Supplementary Headline: Previous bearish play unfolds as expected, but failure to break key support suggests sellers may be exhausted.
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Technical Forecast: Neutral bias with bullish potential above $3,315; bearish risk resumes if $3,300 fails.
Narrative: Bearish breakdown played out, but bulls defend $3.300
Previous forecast
Current
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In our July 4 analysis - Gold price forecast: Bullish scenario begins to materialize & EUR/USD, Gold, Nasdaq, Bitcoin forecast and more, breakout trading setups - we outlined a potential bearish scenario developing around the $3,360–$3,370 premium distribution zone. The market played this scenario out perfectly—failing to sustain above the highs, breaking structure, and tapping into lower Fair Value Gaps.
However, while the initial sell-off confirmed our short-term bearish expectations, price action since then has not triggered a full reversal. Instead, gold has found support at a newly formed 4H Bullish Fair Value Gap around $3,300–$3,315, leaving the door open for bullish reaccumulation if key levels flip.
Key fundamental developments
Tariff delays reduce safe-haven urgency
The postponement of U.S. tariff implementation has calmed market fears, weakening immediate safe-haven demand for gold.
Central Bank demand and De-Dollarization persist
Despite the pullback, central banks remain steady buyers. The underlying bid from sovereign accumulation continues to support gold’s macro uptrend.
Fed stays neutral
Recent Fed speeches point to a patient stance on rates, which has reduced volatility but may still tilt gold bullish if inflation surprises to the upside.
Technical outlook
Gold is now caught between two zones:
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Bearish Fair Value Gap Resistance at $3,330–$3,345
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Bullish Fair Value Gap Support at $3,315–$3,330
This defines a tactical consolidation, where price must break either boundary to define the next directional leg.
Bullish scenario: Support holds and $3,360 breaks
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Gold is currently testing off the 4H Bullish FVG at $3,315–$3,330, a potential bounce level. If we see bullish follow-through and break above the key $3,345–$3,360, we could see a new leg higher toward:
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$3,370 – previous range high.
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$3,400–$3,420 – expansion targets if FVGs form and hold on lower timeframes.
Bearish scenario: Rejection and structure shift below $3,300
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If price fails to reclaim the bearish FVG at $3,330–$3,345, and sellers step in again with another lower high, a break below $3,300 would confirm bearish continuation, targeting:
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$3,270 – next liquidity pool.
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$3,250–$3,240 – deeper imbalance fill and trendline liquidity.
Key levels to watch
| Zone | Price Range | Market Implication | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bullish Breakout |
$3,345–$3,360 |
Clean break and close above confirms bullish continuation |
Bullish |
|
Compression Zone |
$3,315–$3,330 |
Bullish FVG zone; active battleground between buyers/sellers |
Neutral / Pivotal |
|
Support Floor |
$3,300 |
Loss of this level opens bearish momentum toward liquidity |
Bearish Below |
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Downside Targets |
$3,270 / $3,250 |
Break of $3,300 could target these liquidity and imbalance zones |
Bearish Target |
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Liquidity Magnet |
$3,370 |
Previous high; likely area of buy-side liquidity sweep |
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Author
Jasper Osita
Independent Analyst
Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis, trading Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with fundamentals in mind.
