Global markets hold their breath amid geopolitical tensions and shifting capital flow

As we step into June, global markets are once again under the shadow of rising geopolitical risks and shifting capital flows. The Ukraine conflict has escalated with increased drone activity, heightening investor anxiety and driving gold higher as a classic safe-haven play. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions are flaring again, with Chinese equities—especially in Hong Kong—taking the brunt of investor pullback.

On the capital front, uncertainty looms large in US markets, while Asia is grappling with a staggering $7.5 trillion in outflows. This massive shift is not only reshaping regional sentiment but also disrupting global allocation strategies. In the private credit space, concerns are growing around Wall Street’s lack of transparency and insufficient analyst coverage—adding another layer of opacity to an already complex environment.

In energy, OPEC+ has increased output for the third consecutive time, signaling a clear intent to defend market share, though the market's reaction remains muted and cautious. With the European Central Bank’s policy meeting just ahead, traders are bracing for a dovish tone, while remaining alert to the possibility of a hawkish twist that could rattle risk assets further. As June unfolds, market participants must stay nimble, with macro, geopolitical, and monetary crosscurrents all in play.

US500

Bias – Bearish

Resistance zones

• Primary entry (Preferred): 5939 – 5974(40%).
• Secondary (Aggressive): 5909 – 5919(20%).
• Stop loss: >5975.

6006 – 5852 and from 5852-ish area A wave 5934 B, down current and C pullback to 5954 - 5974 area possible then C high from where short can behold for lower projection to 5805-ish area first where it might unfolds.

Targets

• T1: 5860.
• T2: 5825.
• T3: 5755 (major Gann support).

Price rejected from 6000.95; current rally stalling at 23.6% Fib (5899).

• Descending Gann fan resistance aligns with 50%–61.8% Fibs (5939–5959).
• Weak volume on rallies, stronger sell-side pressure confirms distribution.
• Sell rallies into resistance with eyes on 5755. A breakdown below 5845 will accelerate bearish momentum.

The price action is showing clear signs of exhaustion, with rejection from the key 6000.95 level and the current rally stalling near the 23.6% Fibonacci at 5899. Traders may consider selling into rallies near resistance, with 5755 as the next key support; a decisive break below 5845 could trigger a sharper downside move.

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Bias: Short-term Bearish, within broader bullish context.

Resistance zones

• $2,700 – $2,821.

Support/FVG zones

• $2,370 – $2,260 (first bullish imbalance).
• $2,045 – $1,950 (deep discount demand).

Market structure and ICT view

• Price in "premium" zone, rejecting 50% retracement at $2,821.
• Bearish Order Block + FVG confluence at $2,700–$2,820 acts as distribution zone.
• CHOCH confirmed on break below $2,560 → opens path to FVG fill.

Short-term targets

• Initial pullback: $2,370.
• Deeper liquidity sweep: $2,260.
• Major demand test: $2,045.
• Bullish reversal signal: Break and hold above $2,821 with strong volume may target $3,150 (61.8% retracement).

The US500 maintains a short-term bearish bias below 5975, with 5755 emerging as the next critical support to watch. Meanwhile, ETHUSD hovers near a key reversal zone at $2,821—failure to hold above $2,560 could open the door to a deeper correction toward $2,260 or even $2,045. Caution is warranted as both assets approach pivotal technical thresholds.