GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling remains under pressure against US Dollar
- Pound Sterling declined to a four-week low around 1.3360 against the US Dollar during the week.
- Criminal charges against Fed’s Powell remained a key event for the US Dollar’s price action.
- Investors brace for high volatility in the Pound Sterling ahead of a UK data-packed week.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) started off the week on a firm footing against the US Dollar (USD) and jumped to 1.3486 on Monday, following criminal charges against Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell over cost overrun in the reconstruction of Washington’s headquarters.
However, the GBP/USD pair turned down steadily as the week passed after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor delivered dovish comments on the monetary policy outlook, and investors shifted their focus to the Fed’s monetary policy decision scheduled later this month.
Pound Sterling turned upside down
The Pound Sterling gained sharply against the US Dollar on Monday after United States (US) federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over mismanaging funds in the reconstruction of Washington’s headquarters.
In response, Powell said that the “new threat is not about the renovation project but a pretext”. He also added that the threat of criminal charges is a “consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on its assessment of the public interest rather than the president's preferences”.
Market experts viewed the accusation of cost overruns against Powell as an attack on the central bank’s independence, which could undermine US assets and impact the US sovereign rating in the long run.
It remained clear from US President Donald Trump’s comments over the past several months that he was unhappy with the Fed not reducing interest rates aggressively, criticizing Chairman Powell several times for the same.
On Tuesday, US President Trump criticized Fed’s Powell again after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which showed price pressures rising steadily, demonstrating his dislike for him for not prioritizing his economic agenda. “We have very low inflation. That would give ’too late Powell’ the chance to give us a nice beautiful big rate cut," Trump said.
Chiefs from global central banks came in support of Powell, stating that “Independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve”, and “we stand in full solidarity with the Fed System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell.”
However, the steady US CPI report on Tuesday provided relief for the US Dollar against the British currency, as it intensified speculation that the Fed will announce a pause in its ongoing monetary-easing campaign at its policy meeting later this month.
On Wednesday, dovish commentary from BoE’s Taylor on the monetary policy outlook dragged the Pound Sterling further against the US Dollar.
Taylor said in a speech on Wednesday that inflation could return to the central bank’s 2% target in mid-2026 more quickly than having to wait until 2027, and projected that interest rates could “normalise to neutral sooner rather than later”. In the December policy meeting, the BoE guided that the monetary policy will remain on a “gradual downward path”.
The impact of expectations for the Fed holding interest rates steady and BoE Taylor’s dovish commentary was significant for GBP/USD, restraining the pair from regaining ground despite strong United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for November on Thursday.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy returned to growth after contracting 0.1% in both September and October. The GDP growth came in at 0.3%, stronger than estimates of 0.1%. Month-on-month (MoM) Industrial and Manufacturing Production also grew at a robust pace of 1.1% and 2.1%, respectively.
GBP/USD revisited a four-week low around 1.3360 on late Thursday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted a fresh six-week high at 99.50, following a few Fed officials. Kansas Fed Bank President Jeffrey Schmid and Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic came out in support for modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, citing upside inflation risks. “We need to stay restrictive because inflation is too high," Bostic said, adding, “I expect inflation pressures will continue through 2026 as many businesses are still incorporating tariffs into prices.”
UK employment and inflation data to drive GBP next week
The major events for the Pound Sterling in January’s third week will be the release of UK employment data for the three months ending in November and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Investors will pay close attention to both data for fresh cues on the BoE’s likely interest rate decision at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026 on February 5.
The UK ILO Unemployment Rate jumped to 5.1% in the three months ending October, the highest level seen since March 2021. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures cooled down for the second straight month in November after peaking in September.
Next week, investors will also focus on the UK Retail Sales data for December, and on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January for both the UK and the US.
During the week, US President Donald Trump could also reveal the name of the next Fed Chairman. In December, Trump said that he could announce Powell’s successor at the Fed sometime in January. The comments from Trump in his latest interviews indicated that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are major contenders to replace Jerome Powell.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3404. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the longer ones, while the 50- and 200-day SMAs advance and the 100-day SMA flattens. Price holds above the 50- and 100-day averages but sits beneath the 21-day, with the 200-day SMA at 1.3406 acting as immediate resistance and the 100-day at 1.3365 supporting. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 (neutral) edges higher but remains below the midline, indicating subdued momentum.
A break above the 200-day SMA at 1.3406 could open a path toward the rising 21-day SMA at 1.3460, while a pullback would shift focus to the 100-day SMA at 1.3365 and then the 50-day at 1.3335. The upward slope of the 200-day SMA underpins the medium-term bias, but traction would improve if the RSI reclaims 50. A sustained move through nearby resistance would favor an extension toward the short-term average, whereas failure to gain above the long-term gauge would keep the pair contained within the moving-average cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
