GBP/USD Outlook: Bulls need to wait for sustained move beyond 1.3755-60 congestion zone


  • A combination of factors assisted GBP/USD to gain strong follow-through traction on Friday.
  • The sterling remained well supported after the BoE pushed back negative rate speculations.
  • The USD witnessed some selling and lost some additional ground on mixed US jobs report.
  • The continuous surge in the US bond yields revived the USD demand and capped the upside.

The GBP/USD pair built on the previous session's solid rebound from two-and-half-week lows and gained strong follow-through traction on the last trading day of the week. The British pound remained well supported by the fact that the Bank of England on Thursday pushed back expectations for negative interest rates and progress in coronavirus vaccinations in the UK. Apart from this, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar provided an additional boost to the major.

The greenback lost some additional ground following the release of mixed US monthly employment details, which showed that the economy added only 49K jobs in January. The previous month's reading was also revised down sharply to -227K from -140K reported earlier and largely offset an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, to 6.3% from 6.7% in December. That said, the continuous surge in the US Treasury bond yields helped limit any further losses for the greenback.

Meanwhile, the NFP report further strengthened the case for more fiscal support. Bets for a massive US stimulus package increased further after the US Senate approved a budget resolution to fast track the President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan to be approved without Republican support. This, in turn, pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to one year tops and extended some support to the USD during the Asian session on Monday.

However, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets undermined the safe-haven USD and assisted the pair to hold above the 1.3700 mark. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the US, the pair remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. The incoming US stimulus headlines, the US bond yields, along with the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD and produce some meaningful trading opportunities.

Short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.3755-60 congestion zone, or multi-year tops, before positioning for any further appreciating move. Some follow-through buying beyond May 2018 swing highs, around the 1.3770 region, will mark a fresh bullish breakout and pave the way for a move beyond the 1.3800 level, towards the 1.3840 resistance zone. The momentum could further get extended towards the 1.3900 round-figure mark before the pair eventually aims to test the next major hurdle near the 1.3960 region.

On the flip side, the 1.3700 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by supports near the 1.3670 horizontal level and the 1.3640 region. A convincing break below will negate prospects for any further appreciating move and turn the pair vulnerable to slide further. The corrective pullback might then drag the pair back below the 1.3600 mark, towards the last week's swing lows, around the 1.3565 region. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair further towards challenging the key 1.3500 psychological mark.

fxsoriginal

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hangs near two-week low, below mid-1.0800s ahead of Eurozone PMIs

EUR/USD hangs near two-week low, below mid-1.0800s ahead of Eurozone PMIs

The EUR/USD pair prolongs its recent corrective slide from the vicinity of mid-1.0900s, or a four-month high touched last week, and remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops to two-week low, bears await break below 38.2% Fibo. level

GBP/USD drops to two-week low, bears await break below 38.2% Fibo. level

GBP/USD remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday. A combination of factors lends support to the USD and drags spot prices to a two-week low. The technical setup warrants caution for bears and before positioning for additional losses.

GBP/USD News

Gold stays hopeful above $2,400, as US PMI data loom

Gold stays hopeful above $2,400, as US PMI data loom

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,400 in Asian trading on Wednesday, despite a buoyant tone seen around the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Gold traders now look forward to the global preliminary business PMI data for fresh trading impetus.  

Gold News

PEPE price poised for a rally after retesting trendline support

PEPE price poised for a rally after retesting trendline support

PEPE price broke out of a descending channel pattern, surging by 12%, but is experiencing a corrective pullback, trading 2.3% lower at $0.0000121 as of Wednesday. On-chain data reveals PEPE's Long-to-Short ratio stands at 1.66, hinting at potential upcoming rallies for the cryptocurrency.

Read more

Bank of Canada: Rate cut expected; forward guidance eyed

Bank of Canada: Rate cut expected; forward guidance eyed

The Bank of Canada will take centre stage at 13:45 GMT. Alongside the rate decision, the central bank will deliver the rate statement and the Monetary Policy Report, released quarterly and providing investors with a glimpse of what the central bank expects in Q3.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures