GBP/USD outlook: Bull-trap formation threatens of deeper fall

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

GBP/USD

Cable fell some hundred pips on Wednesday as traders booked profits from Tuesday's 1.2% rally, weakening near-term structure and shifting focus lower. Bull-trap pattern is forming on daily chart following unsuccessful attempts to clearly break above daily cloud, as the pair closed above cloud top on Tuesday but subsequent weakness on Wednesday already retraced over 61.8% of Tuesday's advance and touched cloud base. Rising bearish momentum supports scenario of return and close below the cloud that would confirm bull-trap and risk deeper fall towards 22 May trough at 1.2161. It seems that euphoria over sidelining introduction of negative interest rates was short-lived and pound remains pressured by fears of hard Brexit, the fact that the UK will not benefit from EU recovery fund and sub-zero rates scenario that remains as possibility on Britain's fight to cushion devastating damages to the UK economy, caused by pandemic lockdown.

Res: 1.2275; 1.2304; 1.2354; 1.2362
Sup: 1.2238; 1.2218; 1.2182; 1.2161

Interested in GBP/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 1.2578
2. R2 1.2471
3. R1 1.2402
PP 1.2294
1. S1 1.2225
2. S2 1.2118
3. S3 1.2049

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market remains bullish on Friday, led by Bitcoin’s surge above $77,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, mirror BTC’s positive outlook, trading near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Week ahead – Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.