GBP/USD Forecast: Ready for a dead cat bounce as a hard Brexit looms

GBP/USD has been recovering from the fresh six-month lows it hit on Friday.
Brexit uncertainty looms large over the pound.
Monday's four-hour chart points to oversold conditions that imply a bounce – albeit a temporary one.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

The pound's vulnerability has been exposed. When the US reported an increase of 224,000 jobs in June – significantly above 160,000 projected – the greenback gained ground across the board. However, some currencies have weathered the storm better than others and Sterling has been on the losing side. GBP/USD fell below 1.2500, the lowest since January.

While cable has recovered since, but the recovery may be easily labeled as a "dead cat bounce." as troubles loom large over the British economy. Last week's forward-looking purchasing managers' indices by Markit/CIPS have shown that the UK economy has probably contracted in June – opening the door to an outright recession. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has also expressed concern by noting a "sea change" in the global economy.

Moreover, the political landscape has yet to improve. Both Boris Johnson – the leading candidate to become PM – and his rival Jeremy Hunt are open to leaving the European Union without an accord. Markets are gradually pricing that dreaded option in.

These UK placed the pound in a weak spot ahead of the US data. And now, markets await the response from the US Federal Reserve to the upbeat figures. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and tension is already mounting.

With few events on the calendar today, politics may set the tone for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is suffering from downside momentum and trades below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart is below 30 – suffering from oversold conditions – and indicating a bounce.

Initial support awaits at the June low of 1.2505. Friday's six-month trough of 1.2480 is critical support. The 2019 low of 1.2445 is next.

Resistance awaits at 1.2560, which provided support in early July and then by 1.2605 which capped it around the same time. Next, e find another support-turned-resistance at 1.2660, before the next peak at 1.2740.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.