GBP/USD Forecast: holding above 1.30 important pivot ahead of UK retail sales

The GBP/USD pair extended its consolidative price action within a 50-pips consolidative trading range and witnessed subdued trading action through Asian session on Thursday. A modest US Dollar recovery, supported by Wednesday's upbeat housing data, was seen keeping a lid on the pair's up-move. Investors now turn their attention to the UK consumer spending data, expected to post a modest growth of 0.4% as compared to a larger than expected drop of 1.2% in May. Today's UK macro data could be the next trigger determining if the pair continues defending the key 1.30 psychological mark or extends the softer UK inflation-led corrective slide from 10-month tops. 

From a technical perspective, the pair has held above a key pivotal support near the 1.30 handle, also coinciding with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level support of 1.2589-1.3126 latest upswing. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break below the mentioned support before positioning for any additional near-term corrective slide. 

A convincing break below the said handle now seems to accelerate the fall towards 1.2930-20 region, comprising of 20-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, below which the pair is likely to extend the corrective move even below the 1.2900 handle towards testing 50% Fibonacci retracement level support near mid-1.2800s. Alternatively, a sustained move back above 1.3050-60 region should assist the pair back towards reclaiming the 1.3100 handle, which if conquered should pave way for resumption of the prior appreciating move.