GBP/USD Forecast: Bulls could ignore overbought conditions
- GBP/USD climbs toward 1.3600 in the European session on Tuesday.
- The technical outlook suggests that the pair is about to turn overbought.
- GBP/USD could preserve its bullish momentum if the BLS announces significant downward revisions to NFP.
GBP/USD gains traction in the European session on Tuesday and advances toward 1.3600 after posting modest gains on Monday. Although the technical picture starts showing overbought conditions for the pair, investors could refrain from positioning themselves for a correction unless there is a convincing recovery in the US Dollar (USD).
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.44% | -0.58% | -1.23% | -0.23% | -0.97% | -1.05% | -0.67% | |
| EUR | 0.44% | -0.14% | -0.71% | 0.21% | -0.53% | -0.56% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.58% | 0.14% | -0.64% | 0.35% | -0.38% | -0.42% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 1.23% | 0.71% | 0.64% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.58% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | -0.21% | -0.35% | -0.93% | -0.65% | -0.77% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | 0.97% | 0.53% | 0.38% | -0.22% | 0.65% | -0.03% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | 1.05% | 0.56% | 0.42% | -0.02% | 0.77% | 0.03% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.67% | 0.22% | 0.08% | -0.58% | 0.44% | -0.31% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Last Friday's disappointing labor market data from the US, which showed an increase of only 22,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in August, caused the US Dollar to start the week under bearish pressure and allowed GBP/USD to push higher.
Meanwhile, the upbeat market mood further supported the pair in the American session, as Wall Street's main indexes remained in positive territory after the opening bell. Early Tuesday, US stock index futures trade mixed.
In the second half of the day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish preliminary benchmark revisions to employment data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 88% probability of a 25 basis-points (bps) and a 12% chance of a 50 bps Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at next week's policy meeting.
In August 2024, the BLS announced the significant downward revisions to the past Nonfarm Payroll readings and paved the way for a 50 bps cut in September.
If the BLS' revisions show that the NFP growth was much weaker than originally reported, markets could expect a similar scenario to play out and ramp up bets for a large rate cut. In this case, the USD could come under heavy selling pressure and trigger another bullish rally in GBP/USD. Conversely, the USD could rebound and weigh on GBP/USD in case the BLS announces positive revisions, or leaves NFP data largely unchanged.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed slightly above 70, suggesting that GBP/USD is turning technically overbought.
On the upside, 1.3600 (static level, round level) aligns as the first resistance level before 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3700 (static level, round level). Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3500 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), static level), 1.3470-1.3460 (50-day MA, 100-day SMA) and 1.3440 (200-period SMA).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
