|

GBP/USD Forecast: Brexit deal set to boost Sterling  with the golden cross formed on the daily chart

  • The GBP/USD is trading flat at around 1.2950 ahead of the UK Cabinet meeting that is expected to approve the Brexit agreement text.
  • The UK inflation data missed the market expectations on the downside with little effect of the currency market. 
  • The UK junior government coalition partner DUP leader A|rlene Foster said: "we have no choice but to reject this Brexit deal.”
  • The GBP/USD currency pair closed the gap rising to 1.3050 before falling prey to uncertainty and pulled back. Sterling is expected to be boosted should the Brexit deal pass in the UK Cabinet.

The GBP/USD is trading flat at around 1.2950 ahead of the UK Cabinet meeting scheduled fro 14:00 GMT today with the clear agenda of approving the text of the Brexit agreement between the EU and the UK. 

Both, UK headline and core inflation remained stagnant in October rising 2.4% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively, missing the market estimate of a slight acceleration.

The major risk event for the day is the approval of the Brexit agreement text by the UK Cabinet that is set to meet at 14:00 GMT with the meeting lasting possibly for hours.

The junior government coalition party leader Arlene Foster already said that the DUP will have no other choice than to reject this Brexit deal and “this would be the end of our support for the UK PM May's Brexit process."
The currency market implications from current tensions are straightforward. While approving the Brexit deal is Sterling positive, the end of the Theresa May government in the final stage of the Brexit negotiations will have a detrimental effect on Sterling, confirming indications of the Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent from this Monday. 

The GBP/USD currency pair is building a base just below the downward sloping trend on a daily chart. The daily swings were massive over the course of last two days with daily up and down of 1% framed by 1.2827 on the downside and 1.3050 on the upside while the currency pair settled at mid 1.2900s. With Brexit deal about to be approved, the potencial for the upside mounts as the Momentum and the Relative Strength Index both flatlined while Slow Stochastics is set to make a bullish crossover on a daily chart. Moreover, the golden cross of a 50-day moving average crossing over a 100-day moving average to the upside was formed on a daily chart indicating final trend reversal targeting 1.3060 before moving to 1.3380 and 1.3460 important Fibonacci level. Failure of Brexit deal to materialize should see GBP/USD fall towards 1.2900 first before testing 1.2830 next.

GBP/USD daily chart

Author

Mario Blascak, PhD

Mario Blascak, PhD

Independent Analyst

Dr. Mário Blaščák worked in professional finance and banking for 15 years before moving to journalism. While working for Austrian and German banks, he specialized in covering markets and macroeconomics.

More from Mario Blascak, PhD
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary. 

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.