GBP/AUD: Bearish triangle nearing completion, 5th wave could target 1.8200

We last discussed GBPAUD on September 30, when we highlighted a potential bearish triangle that could be forming within the ongoing downtrend.
The latest price action suggests that this triangle may finally be nearing completion, potentially setting the stage for another impulsive move lower.

GBPAUD has fallen sharply this year, and the broader Elliott Wave structure still points to an incomplete bearish impulse. In a basic bearish impulse, the market moves lower in five waves, with waves 1, 3, and 5 driving the trend and waves 2 and 4 representing corrective pullbacks. Based on the current structure, the pair may be approaching the final stages of wave 4 before the next bearish leg begins.

Since April, however, GBPAUD has been trading within a relatively wide range. This sideways movement increasingly resembles a bearish running triangle in wave iv, which is a corrective pattern consisting of five overlapping swings labeled abcde. In a running triangle, wave b extends beyond the origin of wave a, while the remaining swings develop within a contracting structure. Such patterns often appear before the market resumes its dominant trend.

A decisive break below the lower triangle trendline would provide further confirmation that the corrective phase is complete and that the next bearish impulse is underway. In that case, the next downside target comes in around 1.82, where wave 5 could reach its projected completion area.

For now, the focus remains on the triangle’s lower boundary and the 1.94 resistance zone. A sustained move above resistance would require us to reassess the immediate bearish setup, while a confirmed breakdown would strengthen the case for another impulsive decline toward 1.82.