FX weekly – Imports, exports, XAU/USD and 14 currencies levels and targets

Inflation's 3% rise was matched by EUR/USD's 1% drop to 1.0748 and another 2% drop by Friday to take EUR/USD through 1.0696 to 1.0622 lows. As written from the FX weekly, EUR/USD bottoms were located at 1.0626.

DXY's negative correlations to Inflation except for the 2 year monthly average was the dominant market theme to allow DXY to travel 100 pips higher. In normal market trading, higher Inflation lowers the exchange rate however the Moving average many times nullifies the expected outcomes.

What's driving markets for economic news and market price movements is the 2 and 3 year monthly averages. The dominant driver to markets was the 3.0 Inflation release in June 2023 as EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0700's and traveled to 1.1200's while XAU/USD bottomed at 1800's and traded to 2400's.

Imports jumped 3% for March and +4% to Exports. Imported Fuel was the prevailing driver as imported fuel rose 4.7% in March and 1.3% for February. Agricultural prices  is the Main driver to Exports.

To quote the BLS, Import prices from Japan fell 0.7 percent in March following a 0.1-percent drop in February and a 1.1-percent advance in January. The March decrease was the largest monthly decline since the index fell 0.8 percent in April 2013. Despite the March drop, prices for imports from Japan rose 1.2 percent over the past year.

Suzuki's commnets to FX must coincide to fundamentals coincides to trade and Imports and Exports first from the BOJ side then to the BLS release.

Next BOJ and BLS releases to Imports and Exports occurs in 6 weeks. Despite trade hanging on a ledge, markets and USD/JPY is safe from BOJ intervention scare tactics for 6 more weeks.

Targets

From the FX Weekly, EUR/JPY achieved 163.37, GBP/JPY 190.50 and CAD/JPY dead stopped at 110.85 vs reported line at 110.62. GBP/USD: Any price above 1.2676 is open for shorts. Highs achieved 1.2707, lows 1.2426.

EUR/NZD completed target at 1.7949 and GBP/NZD at 2.0933.

EUR/USD vs DXY

EUR/USD lower and DXY higher creates vital EUR/USD and DXY levels as the 3rd possible EUR/USD and DXY crossover since 1999. Last crossover occured at EUR/USD 1.0800's at the 5 year average and EUR/USD traded 1300 pips lower and 600 pips higher for DXY.

We're long EUR/USD as the DXY crossover is not expected. EUR/USD must trade to minimum 1.0804.

The EUR/USD universe sits  oversold and on solid supports to include EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP.

The same applies to EM currencies as EM sits oversold and on solid supports. Many exists as EUR/CZK, EUR/HUF, EUR/INR, EUR/MXN, EUR/MYR, EUR/NOK, EUR/PLN, EUR/RON, EUR/TRY, EUR/ZAR.

XAU/USD and XAG/USD

XAU/USD continues to correlate to EUR/USD for a double trade. The speculation as Mexico and Poland are largest producers of Silver, XAG/USD trades with USD/MXN and USD/PLN

USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs

JPY cross pairs trades the same as EUR/USD and EM currencies. JPY cross pairs sits oversold on solid supports however fairly neutral.

JPY cross pairs trade last on the weekly trade roster. EUR/JPY trades 162.47 to 164.21, GBP/JPY 189.46 to 191.94. CAD/JPY 110.75 to 111.74.

AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY sit alongside EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY.

USD/JPY and overbought allows shorts and shorts for JPY cross pairs. USD/JPY targets 151.53 and must break 150.28 for trade significantly lower.

GBP

GBP/USD contains 2 targets: 1.2491 and 1.2585. Each is easily achievable this week. The GBP universe sits oversold as GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD.

GBP/AUD targets low 1.9300's and GBP/NZD targets the break at 2.0849.

USD/CAD targets 1.3500's easily.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD ovesold targets breaks at 0.6550 and 0.6049.

Corrections higher for EUR/USD and GBP/USD targets 100 and 125 pips. The common theme for overall corrections is easily 100 pips.