The vast majority of currency prices since November are trading within the context of most vital 5, 10 nd 15 year averages. EUR/USD as a leader currency broke first November 10 from 1.1490 at the 5 year average then DXY followed 6 days later November 16 by breaking 95.52 at the 5 year. EUR/USD as a leader currency contained a 6 day lead time to DXY.
EUR/USD Vs DXY Lead and Lag Currencies
DXY then contained a 6 day lag time to USD cross pairs such as GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, CHF cross pairs and CAD cross pairs. While DXY broke above 95.52, EUR/NZD traded 1.6100's and GBP/NZD 1.8900's. Both EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD at 5 year averages of 1.9152 and EUR/NZD 1.6400's imparted a long way to travel to break higher.
EUR/USD contained much more lead time to many currencies as follower currencies played the game of catch up to EUR/USD by trading above or below the larger averages. But this was also a warning to what's ahead for all currency prices by the EUR/USD and DXY break as all currencies had to align to the new larger average arrangements.
5, 10 and 15 Year Averages
Due to trade at 5, 10 and 15 year averages, opportunity is here as much as danger. While November was the time and opportunity to re position prices to align to larger averages, December represents the time for deep caution as currency prices are now contained and traded within 5, 10 and 15 year averages.
Why 5, 10 and 15 is because most currencies trade within the larger average framework and because of the lead lag concept to all 28 currency pairs. EUR/GBP, CHF/JPY and CAD/CHF for example are laggard currencies to EUR/USD and even DXY. EUR/USD at the 5 year average is compatibile to EUR/GBP at the 10 and 15 year average.
Most affected by the new larger average framework is cross pairs. Unaffected so far are the currency market's defining currency pairs as GBP/USD VS USD/CAD. GBP/USD 1.3107 and USD/CAD 1.3038 are most vital points. Unaffected as well by the EUR/USD and DXY breaks. if either currency breaks then a completely different cirumstance exists to currency markets.
As danger, GBP/JPY as lead currency to JPY cross pairs lost correlations last week to either GBP/USD and USD/JPY. From a leader currency, this is rare days especially from GBP/JPY as a highly special currency pair. GBP/JPY this week correctly correlates to GBP/USD +60 and minus 12% to USD/JPY.
Why the correlational change is due from GBP/JPY break at the 15 then 10 year averages at 150.88 and 150.25. As written last week, correlations change at significant levels. GBP/JPY break transferred correlation allegiance from USD/JPY to GBP/USD. GBP/USD is the traditional and rightful owner to GBP/JPY.
AUD/USD and EUR/AUD To the Brink and Targets
To define last week the messge to the brink and prices in love with extremes. AUD/USD target from the 5 year at 0.6900 forced EUR/AUD 300 pips higher. To the extreme as AUD/USD dropped significantly on Friday to nearly complete the target at 0.6900's from 0.7300's.
When market prices set their sites on target completion, then prices will gun towards that target without regards to any market information or oversold / overbought conditions. The price just doesn't care nor pay any attention to such trivialities. EUR/AUD higher was caught in the crossfire and higher was its only choice.
To the 28 currency pairs, its imperative to focus trades on 5, 10 and 15 year averages. This is the present scale. Scale prices by any other means leads to problem trades. Seen by the new scales is a normal market and trading normal prices.
AUD/USD is a good example and this set up is common to most currency pairs to include EUR/AUD. AUD/USD is governed by 0.7307. A major line at 0.7298 crossed below 0.7307. While 0.7298 is deeply oversold to current 0.6993, the line at 0.7307 reaches normality at the 0.6999 target and is not yet oversold. Which is the line to follow for trade purposes.
5, 10 and 15 Year Price Dynamics
What changes the dynamic from focus on 5, 10 and 15 year averages is EUR/USD breaks above current 1.1499 or DXY drops below 95.52. Markets then go into re adjustment mode as we've seen in November beginning with EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, CAD and CHF cross pairs.
The positive and second option is all cross pairs align to anchor pairs as all above or below larger averages. Prices willl then trade uniformily and normally without radical movements such as EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY last week.
AUD/USD as middle currency to EUR/USD and NZD/USD fits the scenario as well as bottom currency NZD. EUR/USD and GBP/USD cross pairs contain problems to EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD and EUR/JPY vs GBP/JPY.
EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are stuck within larger averages and explains USD/CAD trading in small 200 pip increments while EUR/JPY sits oversold just above vital averages at 126.00's and 125.00's .GBP/JPY sits massive oversold below and between longer averages.
AS AUD/USD approaches 0.6999, NZD/USD 0.6500, GBP/USD at 1.3200 lows and EUR/USD at 1.1100's, suspicion without actual fact is DXY eventually breaks 95.52. USD lower and non USD higher becomes the trade such as higher EUR/USD.
Problem pair in the mix as usual is USD/JPY. USD/JPY was born a problem pair since WW2 and no changes today. USD/JPY is the preeminent disruptor to currency markets and USD/JPY to JPY cross pairs. USD/JPY is miles above the 5 year at 109.00's.
USD/JPY sits at 112.76 against most vital break at 112.71 while DXY at 96.15 is 63 pips from 95.52. Miles higher for both or miles lower are only weekly options. DXY challenges next above at 97.16 and easily 114.00's for USD/JPY or DXY 94.00's and 93.00's and 111.00's for USD/JPY.
Markets at 50 year Inflection Point
Markets enter year 2022 and exactly 50 years since the 1972 free float. From BOE creation in 1694, year 2022 represents year 48 and 2024 at the 50 year mark. Year 2020 was the 12th year in the 4th quadrant of 12 1/2 years broken down from overall 50 years. Important here is markets end at 50 year marks and a new system of trade develops. Happened every 50 years since 1694. Hurry for profits as I suspect markes trade next as dead as 1960's currency trading for the new upcoming period.
USD/CHF and USD/JPY are partners this week at vital 0.9212 and 112.71 while USD/CAD begins the week deeply overbought.
Not much downside room left to AUD/USD however EUR/AUD remains oversold and trades between 1.6132 to 1,6204. Below 1.6132 targets 1.5950. GBP/AUD approaches 1.9158 and 1.9258.
GBP/NZD is the easier trade to EUR/NZD while EUR/USD long as usual reperesents number 1 ranked currency. GBP/NZD can easily ride the 5, 10 and 15 year wave over next trade weeks as its price is contained from 1.9158 to 1.9601.
EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY trade just above 5 year averages while GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY trade below yet contained within 10 and 15 year averages.
GBP/USD remains below vital 1.3372 and 1.3457. Both lines are rising. Below prior to vital 1.3107 exists supports at 1.3149 and 1.3117. GBP/USD 1,.3107 is a massive break and GBP won't walk through easily.
USD/CAD and CAD/JPY remain on the high ranked list as well as AUD/USD Vs EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.
NZD/USD and cross pairs remain on the back burner and the same positions as the past 2 months.
Overall currency markets require clearance or resolutions to longer term averages to again obtain normality.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.