FX update – US-China relations dominate

The major currencies have been posting narrow ranges so far today in thin trading conditions, with Japan and Singapore closed for public holidays and with the summer holiday season in full swing in Europe and North America. EURUSD settled in a narrow range just above Friday’s six-day low at 1.1755. Cable lifted moderately, to a 1.3076 intraday high, up from Friday’s six-day trough at 1.3009, before reversing to 1.3025. At the same time, the perkiness of the Pound pressured EURGBP to a four-day low at 0.8996, before bouncing to 0.9018. USDJPY lifted, through Friday’s peak at 106.07 to trade at 106.15. AUDUSD posted a sub-30-pip range just above Friday’s six-day low at 0.7144. Stock markets are mostly higher. With Congress still amid a stalemate on the next fiscal package, President Trump issued executive orders to extend pandemic-era unemployment benefits. Market narratives have also highlighted a lift in Chinese industrial output prices as a positive sign of improving economic conditions.

US-China tensions remain a focus into scheduled trade talks between the two on August 15th after President Trump banned Tiktok and WebChat from operating if they are not sold by Chinese parent companies within 45 days, along with sanctioning 11 Chinese and Hong Kong officials. Meanwhile, China today has announced that it’s imposing sanctions on Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, along with nine other Americans, in retaliation for similar action taken by the US. Also leading pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai has been arrested in Hong Kong for breaking the new national security law “colluding with foreign forces”, local media reports.

Deutsche Bank reported that Gold has “yet to challenge previous highs in real terms” – the 2011 high (adjusted for CPI) was USD 2,159/oz.