French risk spreads from OATs into the Euro as Assembly takes up the Budget

EU mid-market update: Korea’s chip selloff triggers a trading curb as Chinese server-memory plans challenge pricing assumptions; Character.AI’s filing test AI funding as S&P lifts SanDisk into investment grade; French risk spreads from OATs into the euro as Assembly takes up the budget; Diesel relief rests on Kyiv sparing Russian refineries.

Notes/observations

- South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 6% on Tuesday, extending Monday's semiconductor rout into European chip stocks. Seoul triggered a sell-side trading curb after KOSPI 200 futures dropped more than 5%, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost roughly 7% and 9% during the session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had already fallen 2.7% in New York on Monday. The immediate catalyst was Chinese memory producer CXMT's disclosure of progress on a 4F² DRAM cell architecture, compared with the conventional 6F² layout, alongside plans to introduce server-grade DDR5 products by year-end. Higher cell density could eventually challenge the pricing assumptions underpinning incumbent memory producers' capacity investment. Commercial yields, customer qualification and mass-production economics remain unproven, however, and the announcement does not establish parity in high-bandwidth memory. Europe's exposure was immediate: ASML fell approximately 3.4%, Infineon 4.8% and STMicroelectronics 4.9% in early trading. Broadcom chief Hock Tan's separate warning that capital availability could become the binding constraint on AI expansion added pressure to a sector already priced for sustained infrastructure spending. ASML reports Q3 results on October 14, TSMC follows October 15. Orders, customer delivery schedules and revised capacity commitments will test whether Tuesday's liquidation reflects a demand reassessment or primarily fears about future competition.

- JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report before Tuesday's US cash open, with the KBW Bank Index already down approximately 13% from its August peak. Large-bank Q3 earnings are expected to rise by as much as 20% year-over-year, supported by trading, investment banking and net interest income, but the sector lost approximately 6% during Q3 as Treasury yields climbed. That upward revision creates a substantially higher threshold for a positive reaction. The statements will be examined for deposit repricing, loan growth, securities-portfolio valuations, credit-loss provisions and the durability of capital-markets fees after the summer bond selloff. Private-credit counterparty exposure is a separate financial-stability test: warehouse loans, revolving facilities, subscription financing and undrawn commitments to private funds can leave regulated banks exposed to stress outside their own direct-lending books. Headline loan losses alone may understate that exposure, particularly where fund-level leverage and collateral valuations determine borrowing availability. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and State Street report Wednesday, extending the read-through across commercial lending, prime brokerage, asset management and institutional funding.

- France begins parliamentary examination of its 2027 budget on October 13 after the National Assembly's finance committee rejected the revenue package by 31 votes to three, with two abstentions. The government proposes a €54B fiscal adjustment, comprising approximately €43B of new measures and €11B from previously adopted decisions, to reduce the deficit from an estimated 5.4% of GDP this year to 5.0% in 2027. Public debt is nevertheless projected to rise from 119.3% to 121.7% of GDP, or approximately €3.81T, while the government expects annual debt-service costs to increase by €12B. French 10-year yields have approached 5%, with the OAT-Bund spread recently near 140bp, leaving the budget's parliamentary viability directly relevant to sovereign refinancing costs. The chamber begins with a public-debt debate Tuesday; a vote on Article 1 and discussion of France's contribution to the EU budget are scheduled for October 14, subject to proceedings, followed by the first major revenue-package vote on October 20. Socialist lawmakers have also filed a preliminary rejection motion that could curtail examination before detailed amendments begin. Nationwide education strikes and student protests on Tuesday, including opposition to proposed staffing reductions, add pressure to negotiations. The critical distinction for bondholders is between a budget presented with €54B of adjustment and legislation capable of surviving a fragmented parliament.

- The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, published today, puts hyperscalers at 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, up from under 1% in 2024. It names an AI-driven correction, a sovereign yield spike and cyber attacks as the three near-term catalysts for a sharp tightening in financial conditions, and asks policymakers to curb excessive leverage in derivatives and margin loans. Primary markets moved first: Nvidia-backed Firmus pulled a roughly $5bn Australian IPO on Friday after analysts counted about $30bn of debt, and chose a private raise instead. SoftBank last month sold the largest high-yield debt pile on record, including $4.5bn of 7.5-year paper at up to 9.75%. Tencent’s 10-year dollar notes were guided about 115bp over Treasuries today, which implies roughly 6.35%. Broadcom’s CEO said on Monday that capital is the biggest constraint on growth, and BlackRock’s research arm cut US equities to neutral on AI-buildout volatility while turning bullish on short-term Treasuries.

- The recent Treasury selloff has begun generating additional duration supply through US mortgage hedging, exposing a second transmission channel beyond inflation expectations. Reuters reported Monday that the approximately 130bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields and 100bp increase in 30-year yields has pushed conventional 30-year mortgage rates toward 7.4%, reducing refinancing activity and extending the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities. Investors managing that extension can sell Treasury futures or pay fixed in interest-rate swaps, adding hedging supply as market yields rise. US agency MBS underperformed Treasuries by approximately 96bp during September, while mortgage spreads widened around 13bp, although not all of the relative underperformance can be attributed to convexity hedging. Some outstanding mortgages are now sufficiently far below current refinancing rates that additional yield increases may have diminishing effects on expected prepayments. This mechanism becomes especially relevant ahead of US September CPI on October 14 at 08:30 ET, with headline inflation expected near 3.6% year-over-year and core monthly inflation around 0.2%. September PPI and retail sales follow October 15 at 08:30 ET. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting comes after a September rate increase, while recent Fed commentary has indicated reluctance to move again immediately. Inflation surprises can consequently affect mortgage duration, Treasury futures positioning and bank securities portfolios as well as conventional policy-rate expectations.

- LVMH's fashion and leather goods sales fell 5% organically in Q3, against expectations for a 1.8% decline, reversing the division's 1% growth in Q2. The division generated approximately €8.25B of the group's €18.50B reported quarterly revenue, making the miss substantially more important than the group's comparatively modest 1% organic growth versus 1.3% expected. Asia excluding Japan contracted 5%, while the US grew 5%, Europe 4% and Japan 6%. The divergence suggests that the weakness is concentrated in the Chinese luxury recovery rather than uniformly distributed across regions. Watches and jewelry growth slowed to 6% from 9% in H1, while Sephora-led selective retailing grew 8%; stronger categories could not offset the deterioration at the group's core handbag and fashion houses. LVMH shares were down roughly 1.5% during the European morning, with Hermès, Kering and Richemont also under pressure. Four brokers cut LVMH price targets by an average of approximately 9%. The read-across concerns the earnings base supporting luxury valuations, not merely one company's quarterly revenue miss.

- Brent fell 1.1% to $105.47/bbl and WTI declined 1.3% to $92.57/bbl, reversing part of Monday's nearly $2 rise despite continuing attacks on Gulf infrastructure and shipping. The latest supply prospect concerns Russian diesel: Washington's temporary sanctions relief, announced last Friday, allows additional exports under an arrangement initially describing 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1M tonnes in December. These are planned volumes, not verified arrivals, and refinery damage from Ukrainian strikes, tanker availability and sanctions-related payment arrangements still determine how much fuel reaches buyers. Even full delivery would cover only a small fraction of global diesel consumption. Separately, OPEC said Monday that it now expects oil-demand growth of 400K bpd in 2026, against 1.4M bpd projected at the start of the year. That weaker demand assessment sits alongside the risk of further tanker disruption near Hormuz and exceptionally expensive freight and insurance. Crude futures can therefore fall while regional distillate supply and delivered fuel costs remain severely constrained.

- Washington and Brussels moved in opposite directions on Russian fuel across one weekend: OFAC General License 135 on Friday authorises Russian diesel sales and imports, including into the US, until April 7, 2027, and EU ministers on Monday adopted their largest sanctions listing yet. The EU added 1,569 military-industrial names plus 77 tied to Russia’s occupied-territory elections. Trump said Putin agreed to release up to 4.8 million tonnes of diesel, but that volume is not in the licence text, EU and UK bans on seaborne Russian products are unchanged, and Russia’s own diesel export ban was extended to the end of October. Moscow has not confirmed Sunday’s energy ceasefire, and Russian strikes hit a Kharkiv power plant within hours. Much Russian refining capacity remains offline after Ukrainian drone strikes, which caps any supply relief. US diesel averaged a record $6.5276 a gallon in late September, so the license mainly changes who can buy, not how much exists.

- Tencent found bond buyers while AI suppliers found sellers. Order books reported Tuesday exceeded 77B yuan, about $11.5B, for its offshore-yuan notes and $4B for its dollar notes, against a deal expected to raise at least $4.5B. Those are indications of demand, not completed allocations; the reported dollar book also includes $921M of interest from joint lead managers. Initial guidance put its 10-year dollar tranche about 115 basis points over comparable Treasuries and its 20-year tranche about 140 basis points over. Tencent’s offering documents show first-half capital expenditure more than doubled to 96.3B yuan from 45.9B yuan a year earlier, while the company says proceeds are for general corporate purposes, not a ring-fenced AI project. Having raised about $4.66B in June, it is testing how much duration creditors will absorb as equity holders question AI suppliers’ prospective margins.

- Dutch TTF traded near €83/MWh on Monday, the highest since early 2023 and roughly 150% above a year ago, even as the Sunday ceasefire headline sent oil lower early in the session. EU storage was about 73% full on October 7 per GIE data, roughly 17 points below the seasonal norm, with most of Qatar’s LNG still offline and the bloc’s ban on Russian LNG starting January 1. Flexibility provisions let member states aim for 80% rather than 90%, and IEEFA estimates a cold winter would force a 7% demand cut, or 14 bcm. Goldman said in late August that TTF would need to approach €100 to price Asian buyers out and free cargoes for Europe, which leaves about €17 between spot and that level.

- Copper’s nearby tightness deserves a separate reading from the accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine. The company confirmed two contractor deaths after an October 11 avalanche in an open-pit area, and Chile’s mining regulator reported a partial suspension. Copper climbed toward a two-week high on Monday, while the London cash-to-three-month spread widened to about $181 a tonne in backwardation. That spread prices metal available now against delivery later; it does not measure tonnes lost at El Teniente. No verified production-loss total establishes that the mine incident alone caused the move. The combination nevertheless leaves manufacturers and fabricators facing a higher price for prompt material even if the operational stoppage proves limited.

- Cross-asset: Europe's STOXX 600 gained 0.44% to 638.44 in early trading despite a 1.5% decline in technology, with chemicals up approximately 2% and the FTSE 100 ahead around 1%. The divergence from Seoul's semiconductor-led collapse reflects pronounced sector dispersion rather than a uniform global equity selloff. Sovereign duration found buyers after Monday's US bond-market holiday: the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 5bp to 5.193%, while Germany's 10-year Bund yield declined 3.6bp to 3.438%. EUR/USD traded near 1.118, with the dollar softer as oil pulled back. Lower government yields offer some relief to long-duration equities and credit borrowers, but a rally in sovereign bonds does not eliminate the supply pressure identified by the IMF. European energy-sensitive sectors face a different configuration, with Brent easing but TTF reaching a multiyear high. The next US catalysts are Tuesday's major bank earnings and Wednesday's inflation release, with particular attention to trading income, credit quality and whether inflation permits the Treasury rally to extend.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -5.5%. EU indices +0.3-1.2%. US futures -0.5% to +0.5%. Gold +0.4%, DXY -0.3%; Commodity: Brent -1.5%, WTI -1.8%; Crypto: BTC -0.1%, ETH -2.0%.

Asia

- IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) raised its 2026: global growth forecast from 3.0% to 3.1%.

- IMF Georgieva warned that artificial intelligence was a “slow-moving tsunami” that would reshape the global economy and labor market.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 68.0 v 67.1 prior.

- Japan Sept PPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.8% v 7.6%e.

- Japan Sept Bank Lending Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.4% prior.

- Australia Central Bank (RBA) Sept Minutes reiterates view to increase Cash Rate Target further if needed; cautioned that a rate pause during global tightening cycle might weaken the A$.

- Australia Sept NAB Business Confidence: -13 v -8 prior; Conditions: -1 v -1 prior.

Global conflict/tensions

Absence of any signal that the US is preparing an imminent escalation despite a deteriorating regional security backdrop.

Europe

- UK Sept BRC LFL Sales Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.5% prior.

- Bank of France Gov Moulin noted that the domestic economy was holding up in the face of the energy shock but uncertainty gauge is at its highest since April

- BOE’s Greene (hawkish dissenter) noted that if China revalued the Yuan currency it would put upward inflation pressure on the UK. - Greater risk was that policy is not restrictive enough.

Americas

- Fed's Hammack (voter, hawk) reiterated that more restriction was needed, but had an open mind to rate moves.

Energy

- Oil narrative remained centered on supply security. Dealers noted of concerns over the security of energy shipments thru the Gulf despite immediate physical supply disruptions remaining limited.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.67% at 10,727.67, DAX +0.52% at 25,409.95, CAC-40 +0.33% at 7,858.70, IBEX-35 +0.47% at 19,377.22, FTSE MIB +0.55% at 50,308.50, SMI +1.09% at 14,028.90, S&P 500 Futures +0.01%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity bourses demonstrated relative resilience on Tuesday amid a global tech-led sell-off, with the Stoxx Europe 600 advancing 0.3% in early trade as continental markets proved less exposed to pure-play AI mega-cap de-risking than the Nasdaq or Asian semiconductor hubs. Energy-heavy sectors across London, Oslo and the continent attracted steady buying as crude and natural gas prices held near two-week highs, supported by Middle East transit risks and Strait of Hormuz disruptions that kept European gas futures above €82/MWh and oil majors offsetting pressure in industrials and discretionary names. The most notable individual movers included Marston’s surging approximately 18% on raised full-year profit guidance, Givaudan and Elementis both gaining around 3.5% on strong results and sector rotation, while Nokia and IP Group each fell roughly 4.5% on disposal concerns and the Asian chip rout. Attention simultaneously pivoted to the start of U.S. bank Q3 earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo as a litmus test of deposit costs versus asset yields, alongside upcoming European prints from ASML on chip-equipment demand and EQT on private-equity dealmaking.

Equities

- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Marston's [MARS.UK] +18.0% (expects FY underlying pretax profit at the top end of its £76.1m-£83.2m range after further margin improvement and debt reduction), Whitbread [WTB.UK] +2.5% (backed its full-year outlook as strong UK, Ireland and Germany trading offset transition costs that reduced H1 adjusted pretax profit by 9%), Vistry [VTY.UK] +3.0%, Barratt Redrow [BTRW.UK] +2.5%, Bellway [BWY.UK] +0.5% (Bellway's 36% increase in adjusted operating cash flow and £150m buyback supported housebuilders despite cautious FY27 completion guidance), Hermès [RMS.FR] -2.5%, Richemont [CFR.CH] -2.0%, LVMH [MC.FR] -1.5%, Kering [KER.FR] -1.5% (LVMH's fashion and leather-goods sales fell 5%, versus expectations for a 1.8% decline, as Chinese luxury demand deteriorated).

CONSUMER STAPLES: Publicis Groupe [PUB.FR] -0.5% (Q3 net revenue of EUR3.81bn and 5% organic growth modestly beat forecasts, but the company only maintained rather than raised FY guidance).

HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +2.5% (Nordea upgraded to Buy from Sell as the company highlighted several high-value oncology and biopharma catalysts over the next 12-18 months), Givaudan [GIVN.CH] +3.5% (Q3 revenue reached CHF2.09bn versus CHF2.03bn expected, with like-for-like sales growth of 8.6% versus 5.2% expected).

TECHNOLOGY: Raspberry Pi Holdings [RPI.UK] -3.5%, Infineon [IFX.DE] -2.5%, STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] -2.0% (European semiconductor and hardware names followed the Asian selloff after China's CXMT reported progress on denser DRAM and plans for a new server-memory product), IP Group [IPO.UK] -4.5% (the deep-technology investment portfolio was hit as the overnight Asian chip rout spread into European technology exposure).

TELECOM: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] -4.5% (agreed to sell its Enterprise Campus Edge business to Aurelius without disclosing terms, raising questions over the disposal economics).

INDUSTRIALS / DEFENCE: Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] +1.5% (sold its 50% Gammon Construction stake for £250m versus an £86m carrying value, sharpening its focus on the UK and US), Elementis [ELM.UK] +3.5%, Croda International [CRDA.UK] +3.0% (specialty chemicals led the European sector rotation as lower oil prices improved the input-cost and broader risk-appetite read-through).

FINANCIALS: NatWest Group [NWG.UK] +2.5% (Barclays upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight as UK banks outperformed), PageGroup [PAGE.UK] +2.5% (Q3 gross profit returned to growth for the first time since late 2022, rising 1.5%, while FY operating-profit expectations were maintained), Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] -3.0% (agreed to acquire IKB Deutsche Industriebank, which has EUR14.3bn of assets, with financial terms undisclosed).

Speakers

- Italy Fin Min Giorgetti stated that the govt would continue to improve its public finances.

- German Chancellor Merz stated that he wanted a comprehensive reform of the retirement system; expect it to come into force in Q1 2027.

- Fed’s Waller noted that inflation expectations were well anchored; real yields reflected the impact of real growth.

- BOJ said to be leaning against back-to-back rate hikes at the upcoming Oct meeting [**Note: in line with market pricing].

- Thailand Central Bank (BOT) Gov Vitai Ratanakorn noted that needed close coordination between financial policy and monitoring policies, to move in same direction.

Currencies

- USD was softer and off recent multi—month highs as bond yields, oil prices ease. Focus on upcoming USD CPI data set for Wed release and impact on Fed’s rate path. Some risk appetite trying to find traction as Trump said to seek to avoid any escalation in the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, which could dent his prospects ahead of the midterm elections.

- EUR/USD at 1.1180 area by mid-session and maintaining a tight trading range.

- USD/JPY moved below the 158 level. BOJ said to be leaning against back-to-back rate hikes at the upcoming Oct meeting [**Note: in line with market pricing]. Yen still able to post some strength against the greenback.

- Energy prices dipped a little during the session after spike on Monday. Lower oil process helping bond yields move lower. The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.44%, France 10-year Oat at 4.84% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.40%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.19%; 10-year JGB: 3.00%.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y (final): 3.4% v 3.4% prelim.

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0% prelim.

- (FI) Finland Aug Current Account Balance: -€0.9B v €0.0B prior.

- (DE) Germany Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3%ev 3.3% prelim.

- (DE) Germany Sept Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prelim.

- (RO) Romania Sept CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.4%e.

- (CZ) Czech Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5% prelim.

- (TR) Turkey Aug Current Account Balance: $4.1B v $3.9Be.

Fixed income issuance

- (EU) European Union opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 2036 and 2041 NGEU bonds via syndicate.

- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €3.26B vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2.50% Jan 2031 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.281% v 2.911% prior.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €2.13B vs. €1.5-2.5B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month bills.

- (UK) DMO sold £500M in 4.0% Oct 2063 Gilts via tender; Avg Yield: 5.802% v 5.722% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.98x v 3.51x prior.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK22.5B vs. SEK22.5B indicated in 3-month and 9-month Bills.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €7.0B vs. €5.5-7.0B indicated range in 3-year, 7-year and 15-year BTP bonds.

Looking ahead

- (DE) Germany Aug Current Account Balance: No est v €21.2B prior.

- 05:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Aug Total Mining Production M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.5% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v -7.4% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: No est v -13.5% prior.

-05:30 (DE) Germany to sell€5.0B in 2.90% Oct 2031 BOBL.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3-month and 12-month bills.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR2.55B in 2033, 2038 and 2039 bonds.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 06:00 (US) Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism: 98.2e v 98.7 prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 75 prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Final CPI M/M: No est v 1.2% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prelim.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 1.0% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prelim.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.5% prior.

- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell combined €2.0B in 9-month and 12-month bills.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Sept 26th: No est v +23.8K prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales: 3.95Me v 3.98M prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-Week Bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (UK) BOE’s Dhingra.

- 13:00 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 14:30 (IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept National CPI M/M: 1.9%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 33.4%e v 33.5% prior.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 16:00 (US) Fed’s Collins.

- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Aug Net Migration: No est v 3.0K prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Sept Westpac Leading Index M/M: No est v 0.0% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 20:00 (SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement.

- 20:00 (SG) Singapore Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.9% prior.

- 21:30 (CN) China Sept CPI Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior; PPI Y/Y: 4.4%e v 3.8% prior.

- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Trade Balance: No est v $119.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: 25.5%e v 25.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.5%e v 28.2% prior.

- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Trade Balance (CNY-denominated): No est v 809.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 18.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 21.7% prior.

- 22:10 (EU) ECB Chief Lagarde.

- 23:30 (EU) ECB’s Zigman (Croatia).

- 23:30 (UK) BOE's Breeden.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-year JGB Bonds.

- 23:45 (FR) ECB's Moulin (France).