It was a choppy week for the US Dollar (USD) Index (DXY). The Greenback tested six-week lows against a weighted basket of counter-currencies as trade wars, wobbly economic data, and geopolitical headlines weigh on the USD. Greenback bids pushed the DXY back to where it started the week, but the US Dollar remains notably soft through 2025, down nearly 10% from the year’s peaks above 110.00 set in early January.
The Greenback heads into a tense week that will prominently feature US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, and the Dollar Index is struggling to keep its head above the 99.00 handle. Headline CPI inflation figures for May are slated to print next Wednesday. Investors will be pivoting to face the first batch of inflation data, which will include initial price volatility stemming from the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff moves in April. Annualized headline CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% YoY from 2.3%, and core CPI inflation measures are forecast to tick up to 2.9% from 2.8%.
EUR/USD heads into a quiet week on the European side of the economic data docket; European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde continues to beat back rate cut expectations, and Euro-centric economic events are limited through next week. ECB head Lagarde has been known to adjust the rhetoric of policy statements if market reactions leave policymakers dissatisfied, and Lagarde firmly slammed the door on a will-they-won’t-they July rate cut after EU growth clocked in at 0.6%.
GBP/USD continues to drift into the high side. However, Cable bulls remain unable to push the Pound Sterling back above 1.3600 against the US Dollar. UK labor and unemployment figures will be released next Tuesday, and the ILO rolling three-month Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 4.6% from 4.5%, which could introduce a fresh bout of GBP softness as long positioning continues to lean into overextended territory.
AUD/USD continues to settle into a choppy range as bids bump against the ceiling near 0.6500. Australian economic data is strictly mid- to low-tier next week, though Aussie (AUD) traders could be exposed to knock-on effects from an update to Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due early next week. China’s May CPI print is expected to deepen a soft contraction, and is forecast to print at -0.2% versus the previous -0.1%.
Key macro events this week:
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jun 11, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.9%
Previous: 2.8%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces off lows, approaches 1.1550
EUR/USD continues to recover ground lost and now extends the rebound to the 1.1550 zone on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar maintain its bullish bias intact in response to a significant flight to safety amid increasing geopolitical concerns, while positive consumer sentiment data also contribute to the daily uptick.
Gold keeps the trade above $3,400 on safe-haven demand
Gold prices maintain its upward trajectory on Friday, reaching its peak level since late April above the $3,400 mark per troy ounce. Furthermore, the precious metal draws increased safe-haven interest amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, triggered by Israel's military action against Iran.
GBP/USD trims losses, retargets 1.3600
After an earlier dip toward the 1.3520 area, GBP/USD has regained some composure, trading within sight of the key 1.3600 barrier as the week draws to a close. The pair remains under pressure on Friday, weighed down by renewed US Dollar strength amid rising risk aversion and a stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP clamber for support amid escalating volatility on Israel-Iran tensions
The cryptocurrency market has been hit by a sudden wave of extreme volatility, triggering widespread declines as global markets react to tensions between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin is hovering at around $104,668 at the time of writing on Friday, following a reflex recovery from support tested at $102,513.
Week ahead – Markets brace for central bank barrage amid heightened uncertainty
Fed officials to stand pat as they await further clarity. A dovish BoJ could push rate hike expectations into 2026. Deflation fuels speculation about negative SNB rates. BoE may sound more dovish after disappointing UK data.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.